Dataset
HELIX: McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for 2061 - 2070 at 1.5 and 2.0 degrees
Abstract
The High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) project have calculated fire danger for the period 2061 to 2070 under two different climate change scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Scenario (RCP) scenarios used within the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) using two Fire Indices, the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), and the Angstroem Index. This work has been done to assess the change in fire danger at 1.5 degrees compared to 2 degrees Celsius.
This dataset presents those from the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), utilising Met Office Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES model output at a spatial resolution of 1.875° x 1.25°. The original model data were produced and owned by the Met Office. These results have been saved into gridded netCDF files showing global fire risk. The files represent two experimental runs, one is driven by concentrations following the Representative Concentration Scenario (RCP) 2.6, and the second represents a theoretical Solar Radiation Management scenario using a sulphur dioxide aerosol injection to reduce global mean temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. There are 4 ensemble members for each experiment: apdib, apdic, apdid and apdie are the ensemble members for the RCP2.6+SRM run; ajnjm, kaadc, kaaec and kaafc are the ensemble members for the standard RCP2.6 run. A period of 10 years 2061-2070 is chosen for this analysis, and this is compared to a present day period of 2006-2015 (files are labelled according to the data period represented).
Details
| Previous Info: |
No news update for this record
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| Previously used record identifiers: |
No related previous identifiers.
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| Access rules: |
Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for an account to gain access.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. |
| Data lineage: |
Model runs were carried out by the Met Office before fire indexes were calculated by the High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) project members and delivery to the Centre of Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for archviving. |
| Data Quality: |
These data have been reviewed by the authors, however the data is based on model output and therefore should not be interpreted as a prediction of change in fire danger but an indication of potential change under certain meteorological conditions. There can be alternative ways of calculating the fire indices used; please see associated computation record for more information on the calculations used here.
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| File Format: |
Data are CF-netCDF formatted.
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Related Documents
Process overview
| Title | McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) Calculation Methodology used within the HELIX project |
| Abstract | The The High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) project calculated fire indexes values at 1.5 and 2 degree resolution the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) (Noble et al, 1980) equation is as follows: FFDI = 1.25 * D * exp [ (T - H)/30.0 + 0.0234 * V] Where: The drought factor (D) is calculated as follows: D = (0.191 * ( I + 104) * (N + 1)^ 1.5) / (3.52 * (N+1)^1.5 + P -1) Where : This represents the moisture in the upper soils layers that denotes flammability of organic matter (Keetch and Byram, 1968). The HELIX Project used a varying soil moisture to calculate the deficit compared to the field capacity at a depth of 1m. References: Keetch, John J.; Byram, George M. (1968). A Drought Index for Forest Fire Control. Res. Pap. SE-38. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 35 p. https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/rp/rp_se038.pdf Noble, I. (1980). McArthur's fire-danger meters expressed as equations. Australian Journal of Ecology, 5, 201-203. Re-published in July 2006 DOI: 10.1111/j.1442-9993.1980.tb01243.x |
| Input Description | WCRP CMIP5: Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) HadGEM2-ES supplementary model output for the rcp26 expe |
| Output Description | None |
| Software Reference | None |
- units: hours
- standard_name: forecast_period
- var_id: forecast_period
- var_id: forecast_period_bnds
- standard_name: forecast_reference_time
- var_id: forecast_reference_time
- var_id: latitude_longitude
- units: 1
- long_name: mcarthur_index
- var_id: mcarthur_index
- var_id: time_bnds
Co-ordinate Variables
- units: degrees_north
- standard_name: latitude
- var_id: latitude
- units: degrees_east
- standard_name: longitude
- var_id: longitude
- standard_name: time
- var_id: time
Temporal Range
2005-01-01T00:00:00
2070-12-31T23:59:59
Geographic Extent
90.0000° |
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-180.0000° |
180.0000° |
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-90.0000° |