MINERVA: North-West European shelf seas marine climate projections data: spatial two-dimensional 30-year mean climatology ensemble statistics
Update Frequency: Not Planned
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Citable
Publication Date: 2016-09-05
DOI Publication Date: 2016-09-20
These climate projections for the North-West European Shelf Seas update the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al, 2009) and were funded by the MINERVA project.
This dataset contains ensemble statistics for model output based on the QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) ensemble of HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) runs downscaled with the POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissons Scenarios - A1B business-as-usual with medium emissions) conditions, from 1952-2098 for which 30-year means anomalies have been calculated from monthly mean data for each of the 12 months.
A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members has been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at 12 km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates over the NW European Shelf Seas domain (-18.3 to 14 degrees East, 43 to 63.56 degrees North). Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded.
Further details can be found in Tinker et al (2015).
Tinker, J. (2016): MINERVA: North-West European shelf seas marine climate projections data: spatial two-dimensional 30-year mean climatology ensemble statistics. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 20 September 2016
. doi:10.5285/76DEFC55-C384-4FBD-863A-84CCF60C1375. http://dx.doi.org/10.5285/76DEFC55-C384-4FBD-863A-84CCF60C1375
Keywords: MINERVA, UKCP, Marine Climate, Climate Projection, Uncertainty, Climate Downscaling, Shelf Seas, Temperature, SST, Salinity, Stratification, Sea Surface Temperature
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A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AO-GCM, or GCM) HadCM3 is downscaled by the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Monthly mean (and time-step minimum, maximum and variance) 3D (temperature, salinity, u- and v- components of currents) and 2D (surface elevation) fields were saved and the following variables were calculated:
SST: Sea Surface Temperature – surface model layer
SSS: Sea Surface Salinity – surface model layer
NBT: Near-Bed Temperature – bottom model layer
NBS: Near-Bed Salinity – bottom model layer
DFT: Difference between SST and NBT – surface model layer minus bottom model layer
DFS: Difference between SSS and NBS – surface model layer minus bottom model layer
PEA: Potential Energy Anomaly (a measure of stratification).
MLD: Mixed Layer Depth
For the present day and the future:
The ensemble mean (ens_mean) is the average of the 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members.
The ensemble variance (ens_var) is the variance of the 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members.
The interannual variance (int_var) is the mean of the 30-year variances from each of the 11 ensemble members.
The ensemble standard deviation (std_dev) is the standard deviation of the 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members. This is the square root of the ensemble variance, and is redundant in the present day and future period – it is included for completeness.
For the difference fields (future minus present day):
The ensemble mean, ensemble variance and interannual variance are simply the difference between the future and present day fields.
The ensemble standard deviation is different - the differences in the future and present day 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members are calculated, and these differences are used to calculated the anomaly ensemble standard deviation. It is included to allow the ensemble spread to be given for a warming, or freshening.
See dataset associated documentation.
This dataset was generated by the computation
MINERVA: North-West European shelf seas marine climate projection simulations
A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AO-GCM, or GCM) HadCM3 is downscaled by the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each ensemble member is run as a transient experiment, from 1952-2098, under the SRES (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) business-as-usual, medium emission scenario A1B. This work extends that of Holt et al. (2010), released as UKCP09 (Lowe et al. 2009).
HadCM3 (Gordon et al. 2000; Pope et al. 2000) is a CMIP3 model (third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). 30 parameters within the HadCM3 atmosphere were perturbed within an expert-specified range to explore the uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity (Collins et al. 2011). 16 parameter-sets were selected that spanned the full range of Climate Sensitivity whilst still validating against present day. These, with the standard parameter set, formed a 17-member global PPE.
The atmosphere of each ensemble member was downscaled with the regional version of HadCM3, HadRM3 (Jones et al. 2004), with equivalent parameter perturbations. One parameter perturbation, common to 6 HadRM3 ensemble members, did not validate, and so was excluded from the rest of the work.
The atmospheric run-off fields from HadRM3 were used to drive the river routing model TRIP (Oki and Sud 1998; Oki et al. 1999) to provide river forcings.
POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) (Holt and James 2001) downscaled each of the 11 member from the HadRM3 PPE. Atmospheric forcings were taken from HadRM3, lateral ocean forcings were taken from the HadCM3 ocean, and riverine forcings were taken from TRIP. The Baltic was treated as a climatological river, with a seasonal cycle of temperature, salinity and volume flux that did not change through time, or across the ensemble. This is a limitation of the study, and has implications downstream (in the Skagerrak, Kattegat and in the Norwegian Trench).