6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45 English 8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646 dataset Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk pointOfContact 2026-03-09T23:43:18 UK GEMINI 2.3 WGS 84 Initialised seasonal forecast of the 20th Century 2020-05-04T13:13:11 publication 2020-05-04T13:13:11 creation https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45 6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45 Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) This dataset contains initialised seasonal hindcast experiments for the 20th century, produced using a version of the ECMWF's Intergrated Forecasting System (IFS), and initialised from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-20C/CERA-20C). Two types of hindcast experiment are included in this dataset: CSF-20C (Coupled Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with the model fully coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model, initialised from CERA-20C reanalysis data. ASF-20C (Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions at the surface, initialised form ERA-20C reanalysis data. Hindcasts were started every year between 1901-2009 (inclusive) on the 1st February, 1st May, 1st August and 1st November and are run out for four months from the start date. For each start date, there are either 51 or 25 ensemble members (depending on the season/hindcast). Monthly mean values for the following variables have been archived here on CEDA (in alphabetical order): LHF (latent heat-flux) OLR (outgoing long-wave radiation) PREC (precipitation) SHF (sensible heat-flux) SIC (sea-ice concentration) SLP (sea-level pressure) SST (sea surface temperature) T2 (2m temperature) U250 (zonal wind at 250 hPa level) U850 (zonal wind at 850 hPa level) Us (10m zonal wind speed) V250 (meridional wind at 250 hPa level) V850 (meridional wind at 850 hPa level) Vs (10m meridional wind speed) Z500 (geopotential at 500 hPa level) Files for each ensemble member are archived separately and the filetree is in the following format: [EXPname]/[VARname]monthly_[EXPname]_[INITmonth]START_ENSmems/[VARname]monthly_[YEAR]_M[ENSnum].nc Where: [EXPname] =CSF-20C or ASF-20C [VARname] = Z500, Vs, V850, ... etc. [INITmonth] = Feb, May, Aug or Nov [YEAR] =1901, 1902, 1903, ... etc. [ENSnum] =0, 1, 2, 3, ... etc. More details of these hindcasts and some previous analysis of these datasets have appeared in the following papers: Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A., & Palmer, T. (2017). Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi‐decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(703), 917-926. O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N., & Woollings, T. (2017). Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(11), 5729-5738. MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T., & Weisheimer, A. (2018). Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters, 19(5), e815. Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L., & Shaffrey, L. (2019). Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16), 10159-10167. Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T. N., Johnson, S., & Palmer, T. N. (2019). How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 140-159. Weisheimer, A., Befort, D. J., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T., O’Reilly, C., & Strømmen, K. (2020). Seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (2020). Weisheimer, Antje Unavailable author Unavailable author O'Reilly, Christopher Unavailable author Unavailable author Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) custodian 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk custodian Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) distributor 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk distributor O'Reilly, Christopher Unavailable principal_investigator Unavailable principalInvestigator Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) point_of_contact 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk pointofContact Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) publisher 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk publisher notPlanned dataset Seasonal Forecast model atmospheric atmospheric conditions theme GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication otherRestrictions Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users. otherRestrictions Under the following licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/, appropriate use of these data may fall under any use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. grid English climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere -180.0 180.0 -90.0 90.0 1900-01-01T00:00:00 2010-12-31T00:00:00 Data are netCDF formatted. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) Data Center Contact 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk distributor https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45 CEDA Data Catalogue Page Detail and access information for the resource information http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/deposited2020/seasonal-forecasts-20thc/data/ DOWNLOAD Download Data download dataset Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services 2010-12-08 Data downloaded from the ECMWF MARS archive at the resolution provided here and converted to netcdf (from grin). The data were then delivered to the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis for archiving.