The UKCP18 21st century sea level projections are provided as spatially a continuous dataset around the UK coastline. The projections are rooted in CMIP5 climate model simulations and the process-based methods described in IPCC AR5 (Church et al, 2013). The data consist of annual time series of the projected change in the time-mean coastal water level relative to the average value for the period 1981-2000. Projections are available for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (Meinshausen et al, 2011). Nine percentiles are provided to characterise the projection uncertainty. The 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles are equivalent to the IPCC AR5 lower, central, and upper estimate of projected sea level change, based on underlying modelling uncertainty.
This dataset was updated in March 2023 to correct a minor processing error in the earlier version of the UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections relating to the adjustment applied to convert from the IPCC AR5 baseline of 1986-2005 to the baseline period of 1981-2000. The update results in about a 1 cm increase compared to the original data release for all UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections at all timescales. Further details can be found in the accompanying technical note.
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Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data provided by the UK Met Office
Data are NetCDF formatted
UKCP18 regional time-mean sea level projections for the 21st Century
The UKCP18 21st Century regional time-mean sea level projections are based on CMIP5 climate model simulations of global ocean thermal expansion and global average surface temperature (GST) change. Global contributions from ice sheet surface mass balance and glaciers are related to GST following methods described in IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13 (Church et al, 2013). Global sea level contributions for dynamic ice discharge for Greenland and Antarctica are based on IPCC AR5 and Levermann et al (2014), respectively. Estimates of land water storage changes follow those reported in IPCC AR5. These global components are regionalised for the UK through use of: (i) sea level fingerprints for mass components provided by Aimee Slangen and Giorgio Spada; (ii) regression relationships around the UK and across CMIP5 models for the oceanographic component; (iii) an ensemble of estimates of the relative sea level change from glacial isostatic adjustment from the NERC BRITICE_CHRONO project. Following the approach of Church et al (2013), a 100,000 sample Monte Carlo is used to provide uncertainties for regional sea level change based on the 5th and 95th percentiles of the Monte Carlo sample. Please refer to UKCP18 documentation for detailed methods.
- units: m
- long_name: Local time-mean relative sea level anomaly
- var_id: seaLevelAnom
- names: Local time-mean relative sea level anomaly
- long_name: percentile
- var_id: percentile
- names: percentile
- long_name: Time
- standard_name: time
- var_id: time
- names: time, Time
- standard_name: latitude
- var_id: latitude
- units: degrees_north
- names: latitude
- units: degrees_east
- standard_name: longitude
- var_id: longitude
- names: longitude