Arctic sea ice historical records and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections. (left) Absolute anomaly of monthly-mean Arctic sea ice area during the period 1979 to 2019 relative to the average monthly-mean Arctic sea ice area during the period 1979 to 2008. (right) Sea ice concentration in the Arctic for March and September, which usually are the months of maximum and minimum sea ice area, respectively. First column: Satellite-retrieved mean sea ice concentration during the decade 1979–1988. Second column: Satellite-retrieved mean sea ice concentration during the decade 2010–2019. Third column: Absolute change in sea ice concentration between these two decades, with grid lines indicating non-significant differences. Fourth column: Number of available CMIP6 models that simulate a mean sea ice concentration above 15 % for the decade 2045–2054. The average observational record of sea ice area is derived from the UHH sea ice area product (Doerr et al., 2021), based on the average sea ice concentration of OSISAF/CCI (OSI-450 for 1979–2015, OSI-430b for 2016–2019) (Lavergne et al., 2019), NASA Team (version 1, 1979–2019) (Cavalieri et al., 1996) and Bootstrap (version 3, 1979–2019) (Comiso, 2017) that is also used for the figure panels showing observed sea ice concentration. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 9.SM.9).