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UKCP09: Probabilistic projections data of climate parameters over UK land

Update Frequency: Not Planned
Latest Data Update: 2017-04-24
Status: Completed
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Published
Publication Date: 2017-09-05
Download Stats: last 12 months
Dataset Size: 5.92K Files | 528GB


The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) probabilistic climate projections of climate change over land. These data consist of various meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, surface pressure, humidity. The projections of future absolute climate that assign a probability level to different climate possibilities, the absolute values, percentage change relative to the observed climate (1961-1990) and percentiles of the parameter projections are provided over 30 year time periods over the projection period 2010-2099. The averaging periods provided are: 2010-2039, 2020-2049, 2030-2059, 2040-2069, 2050-2079, 2060-2089, 2070-2099. Data are provided over three aggregated areas, (1) a 25km grid over the UK, (2) administrative regions that are areas of the UK based on administrative boundaries and (3) river basins that are based on a division of the UK land area based on the Water Framework Directive River Basin Districts.

In 2009 the first version of the UK probabilistic projections of climate change over land were provided. In 2013 an update was made to some of the files (version 2). Both versions of this data are made available here with the version 2 data being the most recent.

These projections provides an absolute value for the future climate (as opposed to giving values that are relative to a baseline period). A probabilistic climate projection is a measure of strength of evidence in different future climate change outcomes. This measure is dependent on the method used, is based on the current available evidence and encapsulates some, but not all, of the uncertainty associated with projecting future climate.

The climate projections report contains further details.

Citable as:  Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (2017): UKCP09: Probabilistic projections data of climate parameters over UK land. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, date of citation.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: UKCP09, UK, probabilistic, climate projections, land


Previous Info:
No news update for this record
Previously used record identifiers:
No related previous identifiers.
Access rules:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Original data were produced by the Met Office as part of the UKCP09 service before preparation for archival with CEDA. No data has been altered during archival, however the directory structure of the two versions of this dataset were modified by CEDA during the archival process to provide a clear directory structure.

Data Quality:
The UKCP09 data were quality controlled by the UKCP09 partners prior to being made available through the UKCP09 data portal in 2009. See the UKCP09 climate projections review and response along with further details are in given in the relevant projections reports (and external websites) which are available under "Docs".
File Format:
The data are provided in NetCDF format and adhere to version 1.0 of the CF conventions.

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.

UKCP09 data computation


These UKCP09 data were generated using outputs from a Met-Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) regional climate model.

See the climate projections report for full details of the methodology.

Input Description


Output Description


Software Reference


  • units: -
  • long_name: Emissions Scenario
  • var_id: em_scen
  • units: 1
  • long_name: Lag-1 correlation of daily precipitation rate
  • var_id: precip_dmean_tlag1_abs
  • units: degC
  • long_name: Max air temperature at 1.5m
  • var_id: temp_dmax_tmean_abs
  • units: hPa
  • long_name: Mean Sea Level Pressure
  • var_id: mslp_dmean_tmean_abs
  • units: degC
  • long_name: Mean air temperature at 1.5m
  • var_id: temp_dmean_tmean_abs
  • units: -
  • var_id: meaning_period
  • long_name: Meaning Period
  • units: degC
  • long_name: Min air temperature at 1.5m
  • var_id: temp_dmin_tmean_abs
  • units: W m-2
  • long_name: Net Downward Surface Long-Wave Flux
  • var_id: nslwflux_dmean_tmean_abs
  • units: W m-2
  • long_name: Net Downward Surface Short-Wave Flux
  • var_id: nsswflux_dmean_tmean_abs
  • units: %
  • var_id: precip_dmean_t99_perc
  • long_name: Precipitation on the wettest day
  • units: %
  • long_name: Precipitation rate
  • var_id: precip_dmean_tmean_perc
  • units: 1
  • long_name: Probability of dry days
  • var_id: probdrydays_abs
  • units: %
  • long_name: Relative Humidity at 1.5m
  • var_id: relhum_dmean_tmean_perc
  • units: %
  • long_name: Skewness of daily precipitation rate
  • var_id: precip_dmean_tskewness_perc
  • units: %
  • long_name: Snowfall Rate
  • var_id: snowfall_dmean_tmean_perc
  • units: %
  • long_name: Specific Humidity at 1.5m
  • var_id: spechum_dmean_tmean_perc
  • units: degC
  • var_id: temp_dmin_t1_abs
  • long_name: Temperature of the coldest night
  • units: degC
  • var_id: temp_dmax_t1_abs
  • long_name: Temperature of the coolest day
  • units: degC
  • var_id: temp_dmax_t99_abs
  • long_name: Temperature of the warmest day
  • units: degC
  • var_id: temp_dmin_t99_abs
  • long_name: Temperature of the warmest night
  • units: %
  • long_name: Total Cloud Cover
  • var_id: totalcloud_dmean_tmean_perc
  • units: W m-2
  • long_name: Total Downward Short-Wave Flux
  • var_id: tdswflux_dmean_tmean_abs
  • units: mm2 day-2
  • long_name: Variance of daily precipitation rate
  • var_id: precip_dmean_tvariance_abs
  • units: K2
  • long_name: Variance of mean air temperature at 1.5 metres
  • var_id: temp_dmean_tvariance_abs
  • long_name: cumulative distribution function
  • standard_name: cumulative_distribution_function
  • var_id: percentile
  • units:
  • var_id: georegion
  • units:
  • units: degrees
  • long_name: latitude in rotated pole grid
  • standard_name: grid_latitude
  • var_id: rlat
  • units: degrees
  • long_name: longitude in rotated pole grid
  • standard_name: grid_longitude
  • var_id: rlon
  • standard_name: region
  • long_name: named geographical region
  • var_id: region_name
  • var_id: rotated_pole
  • long_name: sample number
  • var_id: sample
  • units:
  • var_id: strlen
  • units:

Co-ordinate Variables

  • standard_name: time
  • var_id: time
  • long_name: Time
  • units: degrees_north
  • standard_name: latitude
  • long_name: latitude
  • var_id: lat
  • units: degrees_east
  • standard_name: longitude
  • long_name: longitude
  • var_id: lon