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UKCP18 Probabilistic Projections Global Temperature Means for 1860-2099

Update Frequency: As Needed
Latest Data Update: 2020-07-02
Status: Ongoing
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Published
Publication Date: 2019-09-16
Download Stats: last 12 months
Dataset Size: 72 Files | 25MB


This data represents the probabilistic climate projections component of the past (observed) and future climate scenario projections data, produced as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project. Data has been produced by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and provides information on changes in 21st century climate for the UK, helping to inform adaptation to a changing climate.

The data represents mean global temperature anomalies with respect to the baseline periods 1981-2000, 1961-1990 or 1981-2010, and cover the period 1861 to 2100.

Citable as:  Met Office Hadley Centre (2019): UKCP18 Probabilistic Projections Global Temperature Means for 1860-2099. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, date of citation.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: UK, Climate, Projections, UKCP18, Probabilistic, Uncertainty, Global, Temperature


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Use of these data is covered by the following licence: When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Data provided by the UK Met Office

File Format:
Data are NetCDF formatted

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.

UKCP18 Probabilistic Climate Projections


The probabilistic projections combine information from several collections of earth system climate models, including the HadCM3 family of Met Office Hadley Centre climate models, and earth system climate models from other climate centres contributing to CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013).

The leading sources of modelling uncertainty in the atmosphere, land surface, ocean, sulphur cycle, and terrestrial carbon cycle components of the climate system are sampled, and simulated responses are weighted by the likelihood for predicting a large multivariate set of climate observables. Observationally constrained uncertainty estimates for ranges of future climate are provided in the form of probability distribution functions or large sets of probabilistic realizations, for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5 and SRES-A1B emission-driven scenarios.

Input Description


Output Description


Software Reference


  • standard_name: air_temperature
  • units: degC
  • long_name: Mean air temperature
  • var_id: tasAnom
  • var_id: tasAnom
  • units: degC-1
  • long_name: Mean air temperature probability density
  • standard_name: air_temperature
  • var_id: air_temperature
  • units: degC-1
  • units: %
  • var_id: percentile
  • long_name: percentile
  • units: 1
  • var_id: sample
  • long_name: sample
  • var_id: time_bnds
  • units: 1
  • long_name: year
  • var_id: year

Co-ordinate Variables

  • standard_name: time
  • var_id: time
Temporal Range
Start time:
End time:
Geographic Extent

Related parties
Principal Investigators (1)