Global surface temperature as estimated from proxy records (reconstructed) and climate models (simulated). The intent of this figure is to show the agreement between observations and models of global temperatures during paleo reference periods. (a) For individual paleoclimate reference periods. (b) For the last millennium, with instrumental temperature (AR6 assessed mean,10-year smoothed). Model uncertainties in (a) and (b) are 5-95% ranges of multi-model ensemble means; reconstructed uncertainties are 5-95% ranges (medium confidence) of (a) midpoints and (b) multi-method ensemble median. {2.3.1.1, Figure 2.34, Figure 3.2c, Figure 3.44}