Caption for Figure 7.19 from Chapter 7 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
Global mean temperature anomaly in models and observations from five time periods. (a) Historical (CMIP6 models); (b) post-1975 (CMIP6 models); (c) Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; Cross-Chapter Box 2.1; PMIP4 models; Kageyama et al., 2021; Zhu et al., 2021); (d) mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP; Cross-Chapter Box 2.4; PlioMIP models; Haywood et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2021); (e) Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; Cross-Chapter Box 2.1; DeepMIP models; Zhu et al., 2020; Lunt et al., 2021). Grey circles show models with ECS in the assessed very likely range; models in red have an ECS greater than the assessed very likely range (>5°C); models in blue have an ECS lower than the assessed very likely range (<2°C). Black ranges show the assessed temperature anomaly derived from observations Section 2.3). The historical anomaly in models and observations is calculated as the difference between 2005–2014 and 1850–1900, and the post-1975 anomaly is calculated as the difference between 2005–2014 and 1975–1984. For the LGM, MPWP and EECO, temperature anomalies are compared with pre-industrial (equivalent to CMIP6 simulation ‘piControl’). All model simulations of the MPWP and LGM were carried out with atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 400 and 190 ppm respectively. However, CO2 during the EECO is relatively more uncertain, and model simulations were carried out at either 1120ppm or 1680 ppm (except for the one high-ECS EECO simulation which was carried out at 840 ppm; Zhu et al., 2020). The one low-ECS EECO simulation was carried out at 1680 ppm. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 7.SM.14).
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