Dataset
Technical Summary of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Cross-Section Box TS.1, Figure 1 (v20230203)
Abstract
Data for Figure CSB TS.1, 1 from the Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
Cross-Section Box TS.1 Figure 1, shows Earth's surface temperature history and projections to 2100
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How to cite this dataset
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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.
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Figure subpanels
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The figure has five panels with data provided for panels a, b and c from the underlying chapter figures (2.11, 4.19). Data for panel e is from Figure 4.11 and a link is provided to data and code in the Related Documents section.
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List of data provided
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This dataset contains:
- Global surface temperature changer over the Holocene divided into three time scales: (i) 12,000 to 1000 years ago (10,000 BCE to 1000 CE) in 100-year time steps, (ii) 1000 to 1900 CE, 10-year smooth, and (iii) 1900 to 2020 CE. All temperatures are relative to 1850–1900.
- Spatially resolved temperature trends (°C per decade) for HadCRUTv5 over 1981–2020
- Multi-model temperature mean projected changes from 1995–2014 to 2081–2100 in the SST3-7.0 scenario.
- Temperature from instrumental data for 1850–2020.
- Assessed projected temperature change in 20-year running mean global surface temperature for five scenarios (central estimate, very likely range for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0), relative to 1995–2014 and 1850–1900.
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Data provided in relation to figure
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- Panels (a), (c) and the top part of (b) are from Figure 2.11.
- The bottom part of (b) is from Figure 4.19.
- Panel (e) is from Figure 4.11.
Panel a (from Figure 2.11 panel a):
- Figure_2_11a-PAGES_2k_Consortium.csv (center)
- Figure_2_11_panel_a.csv (right)
Panel b (upper part from Figure 2.11 input data)
- IndermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_significance_overlay_1981-2020.txt
- IntermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_significance_overlay_1900-1980.txt
- IntermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_trends_1900-1980.txt
- IntermediateData_Figure-2_11-HadCRUT_trends_1981-2020.txt
- Figure_2_11-notes_on_HadCRUT_trend_files.pdf
Panel b (lower part from Figure 4.19)
- ‘Data_shown_in_figure.nc’
Panel c (from Figure 2.11 panel c input data)
- Figure_2_11c-lower_panel.csv (lower)
- Figure_2_11c-lower_panel.xlsx : same as Figure_2_11c-lower_panel.csv but with the format used by the code that generates the figure.
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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data
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Panel d:
The data lines are single ensemble members of SSP2-4.5 from BCC-CSM2-MR, FGOALS-f3-L, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, selected on the criterium that they have a diagnosed ECS less than 0.1K away from 3.0.
The CMIP6 repository is identical to the one used for Box 4.1 figure 1. The same 39 models with historical simulations are plotted. HadCRUT5 is the same reference as for Box 4.1 figure 1. Assessed GSAT is the same as produced by the figure 4.11 code.
Notes on HadCRUT trend maps
For each time period, there are two plain text files: one showing the trend values (in °C per decade), the other an indicator of significant (1 = significant, 0 = non-significant, -99 = missing data). Gridpoints with insufficient data for trend calcula)on are shown with a trend of -999.0. The values are on a 5-degree grid, with rows from longitude -177.5 to 177.5 and columns from latitudes -87.5 to 87.5.
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Sources of additional information
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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Technical Summary)
- Links to the report components of the underlying chapter figures from which part of this figure was generated (Chapter 2 and Chapter 4)
- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 4, which contains details on the input data used in Table 4.SM.1
- Link to figure 4.11 data stored on WDC-Climate
- Link to the code for figure 4.11, archived on Zenodo.
Details
| Previous Info: |
No news update for this record
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| Previously used record identifiers: |
No related previous identifiers.
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| Access rules: |
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. |
| Data lineage: |
Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI). |
| Data Quality: |
Data as provided by the IPCC
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| File Format: |
Data are netCDF, csv and txt formatted
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Related Documents
Process overview
| Title | Caption for Cross- Section Box TS.1, Figure 1 from the Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) |
| Abstract | Earth’s surface temperature history and future with key findings annotated within each panel. The intent of this figure is to show global surface temperature observed changes from the Holocene to now, and projected changes. (a) Global surface temperature over the Holocene divided into three time scales: (i) 12,000 to 1000 years ago (10,000 BCE to 1000 CE) in 100-year time steps, (ii) 1000 to 1900 CE, 10-year smooth, and (iii) 1900 to 2020 CE (mean of four datasets in panel c). Bold lines show the median of the multi-method reconstruction, with 5% and 95% percentiles of the ensemble members (thin lines). Vertical bars are 5–95th percentile ranges of estimated global surface temperature for the Last Interglacial and mid-Holocene (medium confidence) (Section 2.3.1.1). All temperatures are relative to 1850–1900. (b) Spatially resolved trends (°C per decade) for (upper map) HadCRUTv5 over 1981–2020, and (lower map, total change) multi-model mean projected changes from 1995–2014 to 2081–2100 in the SST3-7.0 scenario. Observed trends have been calculated where data are present in both the first and last decade and for at least 70% of all years within the period using ordinary least squares. Significance is assessed with autoregressive AR(1) model correction and denoted by stippling. Hatched areas in the lower map show areas of conflicting model evidence on significance of changes. (c) Temperature from instrumental data for 1850–2020, including annually resolved averages for the four global surface temperature datasets assessed in Section 2.3.1.1.3 (see text for references). The grey shading shows the uncertainty associated with the HadCRUTv5 estimate. All temperatures are relative to the 1850–1900 reference period. (d) Recent past and 2015–2050 evolution of annual mean global surface temperature change relative to 1850–1900, from HadCRUTv5 (black), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical simulations (up to 2014, in grey, ensemble mean solid, 5% and 95% percentiles dashed, individual models thin), and CMIP6 projections under scenario SSP2-4.5, from four models that have an equilibrium climate sensitivity near the assessed central value (thick yellow). Solid thin coloured lines show the assessed central estimate of 20-year change in global surface temperature for 2015–2050 under three scenarios, and dashed thin coloured lines the corresponding 5% and 95% quantiles. (e) Assessed projected change in 20-year running mean global surface temperature for five scenarios (central estimate solid, very likely range shaded for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0), relative to 1995–2014 (left y-axis) and 1850–1900 (right y-axis). The y-axis on the right-hand side is shifted upward by 0.85°C, the central estimate of the observed warming for 1995–2014, relative to 1850–1900. The right y-axis in (e) is the same as the y-axis in (d). {2.3, 4.3, 4.4} |
| Input Description | None |
| Output Description | None |
| Software Reference | None |
- var_id: crosshatch
- var_id: hatch
- var_id: model_nr
- var_id: panel
- var_id: tas
- units: degC
Co-ordinate Variables
- units: degrees_north
- standard_name: latitude
- var_id: lat
- units: degrees_east
- standard_name: longitude
- var_id: lon
Temporal Range
0001-01-01T00:00:00
2100-12-31T12:00:00
Geographic Extent
90.0000° |
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-180.0000° |
180.0000° |
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-90.0000° |