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UKCP18 Local Time-Mean Sea Level Projections for selected Tide Gauge Locations around the World

Update Frequency: As Needed
Latest Data Update: 2021-07-09
Status: Completed
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Published
Publication Date: 2021-07-09
Download Stats: last 12 months
Dataset Size: 102 Files | 6MB


The UKCP18 worldwide sea level projections are provided for the tide gauge locations presented in Palmer et al (2020). They follow the same methods as the UK projections with the exceptions that make use of globally complete GIA estimates and a larger set of GRD fingerprints. The data consist of annual time series of the projected change in the time-mean coastal water level relative to the average value for the period 1986-2005, consistent with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Projections are available for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (Meinshausen et al, 2011). The 5th, 50th and 95th percentile projections are provided for the total sea level change and the individual components. Further details are available in Palmer et al (2020),

Citable as:  Met Office Hadley Centre (2021): UKCP18 Local Time-Mean Sea Level Projections for selected Tide Gauge Locations around the World. NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, date of citation.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: UKCP18, climate, projections, global, marine, sea level, CMIP5, RCP


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Data lineage:

Data provided by the UK Met Office

File Format:
Data are NetCDF formatted

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.

UKCP18 local time-mean sea level calculations for selected tide gauge locations around the world


The UKCP18 local time-mean sea level projections are based on CMIP5 climate model simulations of global ocean thermal expansion and global average surface temperature (GST) change. The extended 2300 projections make use of a simple climate model emulator tuned to CMIP5 models to generate estimates of thermal expansion and GST change beyond 2100. Global contributions from ice sheet surface mass balance and glaciers are related to GST following methods described in IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13 (Church et al, 2013) and as described by Palmer et al (2020). Global sea level contributions for dynamic ice discharge for Greenland and Antarctica are based on IPCC AR5 and Levermann et al (2014), respectively. Estimates of land water storage changes follow those reported in IPCC AR5. These global components are regionalised for worldwide tide gauge locations using: (i) sea level GRD (gravitational, rotational and deformation) "fingerprints" for mass changes in land-based ice and water; (ii) local regression relationships across CMIP5 models for the sterodynamic component; (iii) an ensemble of estimate of the local relative sea level change from glacial isostatic adjustment. A 100,000 sample Monte Carlo is used to provide uncertainties for regional sea level change based on the 5th and 95th percentiles of the Monte Carlo sample. All projections are expressed relative to the 1986-2005 average value. Please refer to Palmer et al (2020) for detailed methods. Further details are available in Palmer et al (2020),

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Principal Investigators (1)