Column water vapour path trends (%/decade) for the period 1998–2019 averaged over the near-global oceans (50°S–50°N). The figure shows satellite data (RSS) and ERA5.1 reanalysis, as well as CMIP5 (sky blue) and CMIP6 (brown) historical simulations. All available ensemble members were used (see Section 3.2). Fits to the model trend probability distributions were performed with kernel density estimation. Figure is updated from Santer et al. (2007). Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 3.SM.1).