Data for Figure 7.16 from Chapter 7 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure 7.16 shows probability distributions of ERF to CO2 doubling and the net climate feedback, derived from process-based assessments in Sections 7.3.2 and 7.4.2.

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How to cite this dataset
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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, and H. Zhang, 2021: The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.

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Figure subpanels
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The figure has 4 subpanels, with data written into the plotting script in the master GitHub repository linked in the documentation.

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List of data provided
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This dataset contains:

- Probability distributions of ERF to CO2 doubling and ECS distribution quantile (ΔF2×CO2; top)
- Net climate feedback (climate feedback parameter vs. effective radiative forcing from 2xCO2, bottom left) and probability density (α; bottom right)

Central panel shows the joint probability density function calculated on a two-dimensional plane of ΔF2×CO2 and α (red), on which the 90% range shown by an ellipse is imposed to the background theoretical values of ECS (colour shading). The white dot, and thick and thin curves inside the ellipse represent the mean, likely and very likely ranges of ECS.

An alternative estimation of the ECS range (pink) is calculated by assuming that ΔF2×CO2 and α have a covariance. The assumption about the co-dependence between ΔF2×CO2 and α does not alter the mean estimate of ECS but affects its uncertainty.

Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 7.SM.14).

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Data provided in relation to figure
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No data is provided for Figure 7.16 as the data is written in to the notebook used to plot the figure. This notebook is linked in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record.

ERF stands for Effective Radiative Forcing.
ECS stands for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity.

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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data
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Data and figures are produced by the Jupyter Notebooks that live inside the notebooks directory. Also listed on the 'master' GitHub page linked in the documentation of this catalogue record are external GitHub repositories and locations within the contributed directory where code for figures have been supplied by other authors. These are provided "as-is" and are not guaranteed to be reproducible within this environment. For external GitHub locations, check out the relevant repository READMEs.

Within the processing chain, every notebook is prefixed by a number. To reproduce all results in the chapter, the notebooks should be run in numerical order, because some later things depend on earlier things (historical temperature attribution requires a constrained ensemble of the two layer climate model, which relies on the generation of the radiative forcing time series). This being said, most notebooks should run standalone, as input data is provided where the datasets are small enough (see the 'master;' GitHub page for these).

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Sources of additional information
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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 7)
- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 7, which contains details on the input data used in Table 7.SM.1 to 7.SM.7.
- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.
- Link to the notebook on the Chapter 7 GitHub repository used to plot figure