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Adverse Weather Scenarios for Future Electricity Systems

Status: completed
Publication State: published


There is wide agreement that greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector must be reduced if climate change is to be limited to safe levels. As such, the UK and Europe are targeting net-zero emissions and plan for highly-renewable electricity systems. Whilst desirable this hugely increases the sensitivity of generation and demand to changes in the weather and climate.

It is therefore imperative to understand just how resilient future highly-renewable electricity systems are, and whether there are physically plausible periods of adverse weather (e.g. long periods of low wind speed and cold temperatures) that could jeopardise security of supply.

The Adverse Weather Scenarios for Future Electricity Systems project provides a dataset of adverse weather scenarios, based on physically plausible weather conditions, representing a range of possible extreme events, and the affect of future climate change. This dataset can be used to more rigorously stress test proposed future highly renewable electricity systems to ensure resilience to challenging weather and climate conditions.

The dataset has been developed by the Met Office, in collaboration with the National Infrastructure Commission, and the Climate Change Committee, and with guidance from an advisory group of energy experts, including representatives from the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS), Ofgem, National grid ESO, Energy Systems Catapult, and University College London, and with guidance from experts at the University of Reading.

Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: Adverse weather scenarios, future electricity systems, adverse weather scenarios for future electricity systems, UK, Europe, weather risk, climate risk, energy system, extreme weather scenarios, electricity system resilience, climate change

Related parties
Principal Investigators (1)