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Dataset

 

Chapter 3 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, Figure 1

Update Frequency: Not Planned
Latest Data Update: 2021-12-15
Status: Ongoing
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Preview
Publication Date:

THIS RECORD HAS NOT BEEN PUBLISHED YET - PREVIEW ONLY!
Abstract

Data for Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, Figure 1 from Chapter 3 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, Figure 1 shows 15-year trends of surface global warming for 1998-2012 and 2012-2026.

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How to cite this dataset
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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Eyring, V., N.P. Gillett, K.M. Achuta Rao, R. Barimalala, M. Barreiro Parrillo, N. Bellouin, C. Cassou, P.J. Durack, Y. Kosaka, S. McGregor, S. Min, O. Morgenstern, and Y. Sun, 2021: Human Influence on the Climate System. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.

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Figure subpanels
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The figure has four panels, with data provided for panels a and b in a subdirectory named panel_ab, and for panels c and d in subdirectories named panel_c and panel_d respectively.

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List of data provided
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This dataset contains: 

- Observed and modelled global annual mean surface temperature and surface air temperature trends for 1998-2012
- Modelled global annual mean surface air temperature trends for 2012-2026
- Observed annual mean surface temperature trends for 1998-2012
- Composite of modelled annual mean surface air temperature trends for 1998-2012

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Data provided in relation to figure
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Panel a:
- gmst_trend_1998-2012 in panel_ab/GMST_trend.csv; HadCRUT5 for histogram, ensemble mean of HadCRUT5 and other observations for open triangles at the top, and multimodel ensemble means of CMIP5 and CMIP6 for open diamonds at the top
- gsat_trend_1998-2012 in panel_ab/GSAT_trend.csv; CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles for histograms, ERA5 for the top filled triangle, and multimodel ensemble means of CMIP5 and CMIP6 for filled diamonds at the top

Panel b:
- gmst_trend_2012-2016 in panel_ab/GMST_trend.csv; multimodel ensemble means of CMIP5 and CMIP6 for open diamonds at the top
- gsat_trend_2012-2026 in panel_ab/GSAT_trend.csv; CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles for histograms, and multimodel ensemble means of CMIP5 and CMIP6 for filled diamonds at the top

Panel c:
- tas in panel_c/TrendPattern_HadCRUT5_mean.nc; shading, with the sig attribute for cross markers

Panel d:
- tas in panel_d/TrendPattern_composite.nc: shading

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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data
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Multimodel ensemble means and histograms are calculated after weighting each ensemble member with the inverse of the ensemble size of the same model.

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Sources of additional information
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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 3)
- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 3, which contains details on the input data used in Table 3.SM.1
- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.

Citable as:  [ PROVISIONAL ] Kosaka, Y.; Cassou, C.; Kazeroni, R. (9999): Chapter 3 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Cross-Chapter Box 3.1, Figure 1. NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, date of citation. https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/817aaaf802734743a2b782f708955c53
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: IPCC-DDC, IPCC, AR6, WG1, WGI, Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Physical Science Basis, Chapter 3, Human influence, large-scale indicators, Natural variability, anthropogenically-forced change, observed changes, global near-surface air temperature changes, decadal variability, hiatus, warming slowdown, CMIP5, CMIP6

Details

Previous Info:
No news update for this record
Previously used record identifiers:
No related previous identifiers.
Access rules:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI).
Data curated on behalf of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC-DDC).

Data Quality:
Data as provided by the IPCC
File Format:
csv, nc

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.
Title

Caption for CCB 3.1, Figure 1 from Chapter 3 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

Abstract

15-year trends of surface global warming for 1998–2012 and 2012–2026. (a, b) GSAT and GMST trends for 1998–2012 (a) and 2012–2026 (b). Histograms are based on GSAT in historical simulations of CMIP6 (red shading, extended by SSP2-4.5) and CMIP5 (grey shading; extended by RCP4.5). Filled and open diamonds at the top represent multi-model ensemble means of GSAT and GMST trends, respectively. Diagonal lines show histograms of HadCRUT5.0.1.0. Triangles at the top of (a) represent GMST trends of Berkeley Earth, GISTEMP, Kadow et al. (2020) and NOAAGlobalTemp-Interim, and the GSAT trend of ERA5. Selected CMIP6 members whose 1998–2012 trends are lower than the HadCRUT5.0.1.0 mean trend are indicated by purple shading (a) and (b). In (a), model GMST and GSAT, and ERA5 GSAT are masked to match HadCRUT data coverage. (c–d) Trend maps of annual near-surface temperature for 1998–2012 based on HadCRUT5.0.1.0 mean (c) and composited surface air temperature trends of subsampled CMIP6 simulations (d) that are included in purple shading area in (a). In (c), cross marks indicate trends that are not significant at the 10% level based on t-tests with serial correlation taken into account. Ensemble size used for each of the histograms and the trend composite is indicated at the top right of each of panels (a, b, d). Model ensemble members are weighted with the inverse of the ensemble size of the same model, so that individual models are equally weighted. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 3.SM.1).

Input Description

None

Output Description

None

Software Reference

None

No variables found.

Coverage
Temporal Range
Start time:
1998-01-01T12:00:00
End time:
2026-12-31T12:00:00
Geographic Extent

 
90.0000°
 
-180.0000°
 
180.0000°
 
-90.0000°
 
Related parties
Principal Investigators (1)