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Caption for Figure 3.17 from Chapter 3 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

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Model evaluation of global monsoon domain, intensity, and circulation. (a, b) Climatological summer-winter range of precipitation rate, scaled by annual mean precipitation rate (shading) and 850 hPa wind velocity (arrows) based on (a) GPCP and ERA5 and (b) a multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP6 historical simulations for 1979–2014. Enclosed by red lines is the monsoon domain based on the definition by Wang and Ding (2008). (c, d) Five-year running mean anomalies of (c) global land monsoon precipitation index defined as the percentage anomaly of the summertime precipitation rate averaged over the monsoon regions over land, relative to its average for 1979–2014 (the period indicated by light grey shading) and (d) the tropical monsoon circulation index defined as the vertical shear of zonal winds between 850 and 200 hPa levels averaged over 0º–20ºN, from 120ºW eastward to 120ºE in NH summer (Wang et al., 2013; m s–1) in CMIP5 historical and RCP4.5 simulations, CMIP6 historical and AMIP simulations. Summer and winter are defined for individual hemispheres: May through September for NH summer and SH winter, and November through March for NH winter and SH summer. The number of models and ensembles are given in the legend. The multi-model ensemble mean and percentiles are calculated after weighting individual members with the inverse of the ensemble size of the same model, so that individual models are equally weighted irrespective of ensemble size. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 3.SM.1).

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