Dataset
Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.8 (v20210809)
Abstract
Data for Figure SPM.8 from the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
Figure SPM.8 shows selected indicators of global climate change under the five core scenarios used in this report.
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How to cite this dataset
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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
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Figure subpanels
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The figure has five panels, with data provided for all panels in subdirectories named panel_a, panel_b, panel_c, panel_d and panel_e.
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List of data provided
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This dataset contains:
- Historical, SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 Global Surface Air Temperature (GSAT) anomalies relative to 1850-1900 (20 year means)
- Historical, SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 September sea-ice area
- Historical, SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 Global ocean surface pH
- Historical sea level relative to 1900 from gauges (to 1992) and altimeters (1993 on) (offset 0.158 m vs. 1995-2014)
- AR6 sea level projections relative to 1900 (offset 0.158 m vs. 1995-2014)
- AR6 assessed global mean sea level at 2300 relative to 1900 (offset 0.158 m vs. 1995-2014)
The five illustrative SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) scenarios are described in Box SPM.1 of the Summary for Policymakers and Section 1.6.1.1 of Chapter 1.
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Data provided in relation to figure
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Panel a: Near-Surface Air Temperature
- Data file: panel_a/tas_global_Historical.csv (black line and grey shading)
- Data file: panel_a/tas_global_SSP1_1_9.csv (cyan line)
- Data file: panel_a/tas_global_SSP1_2_6.csv (blue line and blue shading)
- Data file: panel_a/tas_global_SSP2_4_5.csv (orange line)
- Data file: panel_a/tas_global_SSP3_7_0.csv (red line and red shading)
- Data file: panel_a/tas_global_SSP5_8_5.csv (brown line)
Panel b: Sea-Ice Area
- Data file: panel_b/sia_arctic_september_Historical.csv (black line and grey shading)
- Data file: panel_b/sia_arctic_september_SSP1_1_9.csv (cyan line)
- Data file: panel_b/sia_arctic_september_SSP1_2_6.csv (blue line and blue shading)
- Data file: panel_b/sia_arctic_september_SSP2_4_5.csv (orange line)
- Data file: panel_b/sia_arctic_september_SSP3_7_0.csv (red line and red shading)
- Data file: panel_b/sia_arctic_september_SSP5_8_5.csv (brown line)
Panel c: Ocean Surface pH
- Data file: panel_c/phos_global_Historical.csv (black line and grey shading
- Data file: panel_c/phos_global_SSP1_1_9.csv (cyan line
- Data file: panel_b/phos_global_SSP1_2_6.csv (blue line and blue shading)
- Data file: panel_c/phos_global_SSP2_4_5.csv (orange line)
- Data file: panel_c/phos_global_SSP3_7_0.csv (red line and red shading)
- Data file: panel_c/phos_global_SSP5_8_5.csv (brown line)
Panel d: Sea Level
- Data file: panel_d/global_sea_level_observed.csv (black line)
- Data file: panel_d/global_sea_level_projected.csv (cyan, blue, orange, red and brown lines, red and blue shading)
Panel e: Sea Level
- Data file: panel_e: global_sea_level_2300_assessed.csv (columns 2 and 3, SSP1-2.6 scenario; columns 4 to 6 SSP5-8.5 scenario)
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Sources of additional information
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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Summary for Policymakers)
Details
| Previous Info: |
No news update for this record
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| Previously used record identifiers: |
No related previous identifiers.
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| Access rules: |
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence(s): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. |
| Data lineage: |
Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI). Data curated on behalf of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC-DDC). |
| File Format: |
Data are CSV formatted.
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Related Documents
Citations: 1
The following citations have been automatically harvested from external sources associated with this resource where DOI tracking is possible. As such some citations may be missing from this list whilst others may not be accurate. Please contact the helpdesk to raise any issues to help refine these citation trackings.
| van der Wiel, K., Beersma, J., van den Brink, H., Krikken, F., Selten, F., Severijns, C., Sterl, A., van Meijgaard, E., Reerink, T. & van Dorland, R. (2024) KNMI’23 Climate Scenarios for the Netherlands: Storyline Scenarios of Regional Climate Change. Earth’s Future 12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003983 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003983 |
Process overview
| Title | Caption for Figure SPM.8 from the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) |
| Abstract | Selected indicators of global climate change under the five illustrative scenarios used in this report. The projections for each of the five scenarios are shown in colour. Shades represent uncertainty ranges – more detail is provided for each panel below. The black curves represent the historical simulations (panels a, b, c) or the observations (panel d). Historical values are included in all graphs to provide context for the projected future changes. Panel a) Global surface temperature changes in °C relative to 1850–1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity (see Box SPM.1). Changes relative to 1850–1900 based on 20-year averaging periods are calculated by adding 0.85°C (the observed global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 1995–2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995–2014. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Panel b) September Arctic sea ice area in 10^6 km^2 based on CMIP6 model simulations. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. The Arctic is projected to be practically ice-free near mid-century under mid- and high GHG emissions scenarios. Panel c) Global ocean surface pH (a measure of acidity) based on CMIP6 model simulations. Very likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Panel d) Global mean sea level change in meters relative to 1900. The historical changes are observed (from tide gauges before 1992 and altimeters afterwards), and the future changes are assessed consistently with observational constraints based on emulation of CMIP, ice sheet, and glacier models. Likely ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Only likely ranges are assessed for sea level changes due to difficulties in estimating the distribution of deeply uncertain processes. The dashed curve indicates the potential impact of these deeply uncertain processes. It shows the 83rd percentile of SSP5-8.5 projections that include low-likelihood, high-impact ice sheet processes that cannot be ruled out; because of low confidence in projections of these processes, this curve does not constitute part of a likely range. Changes relative to 1900 are calculated by adding 0.158 m (observed global mean sea level rise from 1900 to 1995–2014) to simulated and observed changes relative to 1995–2014. Panel e): Global mean sea level change at 2300 in meters relative to 1900. Only SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 are projected at 2300, as simulations that extend beyond 2100 for the other scenarios are too few for robust results. The 17th–83rd percentile ranges are shaded. The dashed arrow illustrates the 83rd percentile of SSP5-8.5 projections that include low-likelihood, high-impact ice sheet processes that cannot be ruled out. Panels b) and c) are based on single simulations from each model, and so include a component of internal variability. Panels a), d) and e) are based on long-term averages, and hence the contributions from internal variability are small. {Figure TS.8, Figure TS.11, Box TS.4 Figure 1, Box TS.4 Figure 1, 4.3, 9.6, Figure 4.2, Figure 4.8, Figure 4.11, Figure 9.27} |
| Input Description | None |
| Output Description | None |
| Software Reference | None |
No variables found.
Temporal Range
1950-01-01T00:00:00
2300-12-31T23:59:59
Geographic Extent
90.0000° |
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-180.0000° |
180.0000° |
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-90.0000° |