Rate of change in basin-scale annual mean runoff with increasing global warming levels. Relative changes (%) in basin-averaged annual mean runoff estimated as multi-model ensemble median from a variable subset of CMIP6 models for each SSP over nine major river basins: (a) Mississippi, (b) Danube, (c) Lena, (d) Amazon, (e) Euphrates, (f) Yangtze, (g) Niger, (h) Indus, and (i) Murray. The basin averages have been estimated after a first-order conservative remapping of the model outputs on the 0.5° by 0.5° river network of Decharme et al. (2019). The shaded area indicates the 5–95% confidence interval of the ensemble values across all SSPs. Note that the y-axis range differs across basins and is particularly large for Niger and Murray (panels g and i). The number of models considered is specified for each scenario in the legend located inside panel b. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 8.SM.1).