An update to the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al. 2009) funded by the Minerva Project.
A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members have been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP: Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Projections) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at a 12km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates. Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded.