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Chapter 10 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 10.21 (v20220622)

Update Frequency: Not Planned
Latest Data Update: 2022-06-22
Status: Completed
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Citable
Publication Date: 2022-06-29
DOI Publication Date: 2023-05-17
Download Stats: last 12 months
Dataset Size: 11 Files | 9MB


Data for Figure 10.21 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure 10.21 shows projected Mediterranean summer warming.

How to cite this dataset
When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012.

Figure subpanels
The figure has 4 subpanels. Data for all subpanels is provided.

List of data provided
The data is annual summer (JJA) surface air temperature means for:

- Modelled anomalies 2015-2100 with respect to 1995-2014 average for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N)
- Modelled change until 2081‒2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over the Mediterranean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N)
- Trends 2015-2050 for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N)
- Modelled trends over 2015-2050
- Modelled Mediterranean summer vs global warming

Data provided in relation to figure
Panel (a):
- Data files:
Modelled JJA surface air temperature anomalies 2015-2100 (baseline 1995-2014) for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N, CMIP5 (blue), CMIP6 (dark red), HighResMIP (orange), CORDEX EUR-44 (light blue), CORDEX EUR-11 (green)) and change until 2081‒2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages (SSP1-2.6 dark blue, SSP2-4.5 yellow, SSP3-7.0 red, SSP5-8.5 dark red)

Panel (b):
- Data file: Fig_10_21_panel-b_trends.csv;
Modelled JJA OLS linear trends in surface air temperature 2015-2050 for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N) CMIP5 (blue circles), CMIP6 (dark red circles), HighResMIP (orange circles), CORDEX EUR-44 (light blue circles), CORDEX EUR-11 (green circles)) and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM (grey shading)

Panel (c):
- Data files:,,,,;
Modelled OLS linear surface air temperature trends over 2015-2050 of CMIP5, CMIP6, HighResMIP, CORDEX EUR-44, and CORDEX EUR-11 ensemble means

Panel (d):
- Data file: Fig_10_21_panel-d_GWLRWL.csv;
Modelled Mediterranean summer (JJA) vs global warming under CMIP5 (RCP2.6 dark blue dashed line, RCP4.5 light blue dashed line, RCP6.0 orange dashed line and RCP8.5 red dashed line) and CMIP6 (SSP1-2.6 dark blue line, SSP2-4.5 yellow line, SSP3-7.0 red line, SSP5-8.5 dark red line) scenarios.

CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,
Cordex – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment,
HighResMIP - High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project,
SSP- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,
SMILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles,
MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate,
CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,
MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, ESM - Earth System Model,
RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway,
OLS - ordinary least squares regression.

Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data
The code for ESMValTool is provided.

Sources of additional information
The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10)
- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11
- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.

Citable as:  Jury, M.; Haarsma, R.; Dosio, A.; Doblas-Reyes, F.; Terray, L. (2023): Chapter 10 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 10.21 (v20220622). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 17 May 2023. doi:10.5285/9f83afcc47ca49feb1d5702de9fa8869.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: IPCC-DDC, IPCC, AR6, WG1, WGI, Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Physical Science Basis, Chapter 10, teleconnections, drivers, feedbacks, Linking global to regional, Regional scale, internal variability, forced change, model improvements, Figure 10.21, surface air temperature, surface air temperature trend, Mediterranean, Mediterranean summer warming, future period


Previous Info:
No news update for this record
Previously used record identifiers:
No related previous identifiers.
Access rules:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI).
Data curated on behalf of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC-DDC).

Data Quality:
Data as provided by the IPCC
File Format:
txt, netCDF, csv

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.

Caption for Figure 10.21 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)


Projected Mediterranean summer warming. (a) Time series of area averaged Mediterranean (25°N‒50°N, 10°W‒40°E) land point summer surface air temperature anomalies (°C, baseline period is 1995–2014). Orange, light blue and green lines show low-pass filtered ensemble means of HighResMIP (highres-future, four members), CORDEX EUR-44 (RCP8.5, 20 members) and CORDEX EUR-11 (RCP8.5, 37 members). Blue and dark red lines and shadings show low-pass filtered ensemble means and standard deviations of CMIP5 (RCP8.5, 41 members) and CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5, 36 members). The filter is the same as the one used in Figure 10.10. The box-and-whisker plots show long-term (until 2081–2100) temperature changes of different CMIP6 scenarios with respect to the baseline period (SSP1-2.6 in dark blue, SSP2-4.5 in yellow, SSP3-7.0 in red, SSP5-8.5 in dark red). (b) Distribution of 2015‒2050 Mediterranean summer temperature linear trends (°C per decade) for CORDEX EUR-11 (RCP8.5, green circles), CORDEX EUR-44 (RCP8.5, light blue circles), HighResMIP (highres-future, orange circles), CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5, dark red circles), CMIP5 (RCP8.5, blue circles) and selected SMILEs (grey box-and-whisker plots, MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and MPI-ESM). Ensemble means are also shown. CMIP6 models showing a very high ECS (Box 4.1) have been marked with a black cross. All trends are estimated using ordinary least-squares and box-and-whisker plots follow the methodology used in Figure 10.6. (c) Projections of ensemble mean 2015‒2050 linear trends (°C per decade) of CMIP5 (RCP8.5), CORDEX EUR-44 (RCP8.5), CORDEX EUR-11 (RCP8.5), CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5) and HighResMIP (highres-future). All trends are estimated using ordinary least-squares. (d) Projected Mediterranean summer warming in comparison to global annual mean warming of CMIP5 (dashed lines, RCP2.6 in dark blue, RCP4.5 in light blue, RCP6.0 in orange and RCP8.5 in red) and CMIP6 (solid lines, SSP1-2.6 in dark blue, SSP2-4.5 in yellow, SSP3-7.0 in red and SSP5-8.5 in dark red) ensemble means. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 10.SM.11).

Input Description


Output Description


Software Reference


  • standard_name: air_temperature
  • var_id: tas
  • units: degC
  • long_name: Near-Surface Air Temperature
  • var_id: lat_bnds
  • units: degrees
  • long_name: latitude in rotated pole grid
  • standard_name: grid_latitude
  • var_id: rlat
  • var_id: latitude_longitude
  • var_id: lon_bnds
  • units: degrees
  • long_name: longitude in rotated pole grid
  • standard_name: grid_longitude
  • var_id: rlon
  • var_id: rotated_latitude_longitude
  • var_id: time_bnds
  • units: 1
  • long_name: year
  • var_id: year
  • var_id: year_bnds

Co-ordinate Variables

  • units: degrees_north
  • standard_name: latitude
  • long_name: latitude
  • var_id: lat
  • units: degrees_north
  • standard_name: latitude
  • var_id: lat
  • long_name: latitude coordinate
  • units: degrees_east
  • standard_name: longitude
  • long_name: longitude
  • var_id: lon
  • units: degrees_east
  • standard_name: longitude
  • var_id: lon
  • long_name: longitude coordinate
  • long_name: time
  • standard_name: time
  • var_id: time
  • units: days
Temporal Range
Start time:
End time:
Geographic Extent