Caption for Figure 11.19 from Chapter 11 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
Projected changes in (a–c) the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (d–f) annual mean soil moisture over the total column, and (g–l) the frequency and intensity of 1-in-10-year soil moisture drought for the June-to-August and December-to-February seasons at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C of global warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline. The unit for soil moisture change is the standard deviation of interannual variability in soil moisture during 1850–1900. Standard deviation is a widely used metric in characterizing drought severity. A projected reduction in mean soil moisture by one standard deviation corresponds to soil moisture conditions typical of about 1-in-6-year droughts during 1850–1900 becoming the norm in the future. Results are based on simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP), SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The numbers in the top right indicate the number of simulations included. Uncertainty is represented using the simple approach: no overlay indicates regions with high model agreement, where ≥80% of models agree on the sign of change; diagonal lines indicate regions with low model agreement, where <80% of models agree on the sign of change. For more information on the simple approach, please refer to the Cross-Chapter Box Atlas 1. For details on the methods see Supplementary Material 11.SM.2. Changes in CDDs are also displayed in the Interactive Atlas. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 11.SM.9).
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