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Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.4 (v20210809)

Update Frequency: Not Planned
Latest Data Update: 2021-08-09
Status: Completed
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Published
Publication Date: 2021-08-09
Download Stats: last 12 months
Dataset Size: 7 Files | 18KB


Data for Figure SPM.4 from the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure SPM.4 panel a shows global emissions projections for CO2 and a set of key non-CO2 climate drivers, for the core set of five IPCC AR6 scenarios. Figure SPM.4 panel b shows attributed warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1850-1900 for total anthropogenic, CO2, other greenhouse gases, and other anthropogenic forcings for five Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios.

How to cite this dataset
When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:

IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.

Figure subpanels
The figure has two panels, with data provided for all panels in subdirectories named panel_a and panel_b.

List of data provided
This dataset contains:

- Projected emissions from 2015 to 2100 for the five scenarios of the AR6 WGI core scenario set (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5)
- Projected warming for all anthropogenic forcers, CO2 only, non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) only, and other anthropogenic components for 2081-2100 relative to 1850-1900, for SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.

The five illustrative SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) scenarios are described in Box SPM.1 of the Summary for Policymakers and Section of Chapter 1.

Data provided in relation to figure
Panel a:

The first column includes the years, while the next columns include the data per scenario and per climate forcer for the line graphs.

- Data file: Carbon_dioxide_Gt_CO2_yr.csv. relates to Carbon dioxide emissions panel
- Data file: Methane_Mt_CO2_yr.csv. relates to Methane emissions panel
- Data file: Nitrous_oxide_Mt N2O_yr.csv. relates to Nitrous oxide emissions panel
- Data file: Sulfur_dioxide_Mt SO2_yr.csv. relates to Sulfur dioxide emissions panel

Panel b:

- Data file: ts_warming_ranges_1850-1900_base_panel_b.csv. [Rows 2 to 5 relate to the first bar chart (cyan). Rows 6 to 9 relate to the second bar chart (blue). Rows 10 to 13 relate to the third bar chart (orange). Rows 14 to 17 relate to the fourth bar chart (red). Rows 18 to 21 relate to the fifth bar chart (brown).].

Sources of additional information
The following weblink are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the report webpage, which includes the report component containing the figure (Summary for Policymakers) and the Supplementary Material for Chapter 1, which contains details on the input data used in Table 1.SM.1..(Cross-Chapter Box 1.4, Figure 2).
- Link to related publication for input data used in panel a.

Citable as:  Rogelj, J.; Smith, C.; Plattner, G.-K.; Meinshausen, M.; Szopa, S.; Milinski, S.; Marotzke, J. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.4 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, date of citation. doi:10.5285/bd65331b1d344ccca44852e495d3a049.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: IPCC-DDC, IPCC, AR6, WG1, WGI, SPM, Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers, Figure SPM.4, global temperature, attribution, projections, scenarios, shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP


Previous Info:
No news update for this record
Previously used record identifiers:
No related previous identifiers.
Access rules:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI).
Data curated on behalf of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC-DDC).

Data Quality:
Data as provided by the IPCC
File Format:
Data are CSV formatted.

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.

Caption for Figure SPM.4 from the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)


Future anthropogenic emissions of key drivers of climate change and warming contributions by groups of drivers for the five illustrative scenarios used in this report.

The five scenarios are SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.

Panel a) Annual anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions over the 2015–2100 period. Shown are emissions trajectories for carbon dioxide (CO2) from all sectors (GtCO2/yr) (left graph) and for a subset of three key non-CO2 drivers considered in the scenarios: methane (CH4, MtCH4/yr, top-right graph), nitrous oxide (N2O, MtN2O/yr, middle-right graph) and sulfur dioxide (SO2, MtSO2/yr, bottom-right graph, contributing to anthropogenic aerosols in panel b).

Panel b) Warming contributions by groups of anthropogenic drivers and by scenario are shown as change in global surface temperature (°C) in 2081–2100 relative to 1850–1900, with indication of the observed warming to date. Bars and whiskers represent median values and the very likely range, respectively. Within each scenario bar plot, the bars represent total global warming (°C; total bar) (see Table SPM.1) and warming contributions (°C) from changes in CO2 (CO2 bar), from non-CO2 greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs bar; comprising well-mixed greenhouse gases and ozone) and net cooling from other anthropogenic drivers (aerosols and land-use bar; anthropogenic aerosols, changes in reflectance due to land-use and irrigation changes, and contrails from aviation; see Figure SPM.2, panel c, for the warming contributions to date for individual drivers). The best estimate for observed warming in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900 (see Figure SPM.2, panel a) is indicated in the darker column in the total bar. Warming contributions in panel b are calculated as explained in Table SPM.1 for the total bar. For the other bars the contribution by groups of drivers are calculated with a physical climate emulator of global surface temperature which relies on climate sensitivity and radiative forcing assessments.

{Cross-Chapter Box 1.4, 4.6, Figure 4.35, 6.7, Figure 6.18, 6.22 and 6.24, Cross-Chapter Box 7.1, 7.3, Figure 7.7, Box TS.7, Figures TS.4 and TS.15}

Input Description


Output Description


Software Reference


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