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Dataset

 

Perturbed CO2 forecasts of the February 2019 European heatwave

Update Frequency: Not Planned
Status: Completed
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Citable
Publication Date: 2021-11-17
DOI Publication Date: 2021-12-14
Download Stats: last 12 months

Abstract

This dataset contains a range of model output from both operational runs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) CY45R1 model forecasts and hindcasts and output from specific experimental runs.

These data were produced to support the article "Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability" (see citation and link to paper elsewhere on this record).

Within the archived products the directory tree structure is as follows:

Top level domain splitting:
>EU
Model data at 0.25 degree resolution for the region contained within (33 to 73.5N / -27 to 45E).

>GLOB
Model data at 0.25 degree resolution for the full globe.

Below which there are sub-directories as follows (note, M-climate is only available for the EU domain):

>>ENS​
Data from the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecast.

>>M-climate
Data from EPS hindcasts used to construct model climate. See https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/M-climate%2C+the+ENS+Model+Climate.

>>pi-CO2
Data from EPS forecast that replicates operations *but for* reduced CO2 concentrations, set to 285 ppm.

>>incr-CO2
Data from EPS forecast that replicates operations *but for* increased CO2 concentrations, set to 600 ppm.

Within these runs the data are then available on the following level types:
>>>pl
Data on pressure levels.

>>>sfc
Data on single levels.

Ensemble data are further split into sub-directories as follows:
>>>>cf
Control forecast member.

>>>>pf
Perturbed forecast members.

The specific variables available within each netCDF file can differ depending on the region and experiment type (eg. the operational ENS forecasts whose initialisation dates match those of the perturbed CO2 experiments have more variables available than the others). All the datasets & variables required to reproduce the analysis are described in the paper.

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Nicholas J. Leach, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen, Tim Palmer. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2021, 118 (49) e2112087118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2112087118

Citable as:  European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Leach, N.J. (2021): Perturbed CO2 forecasts of the February 2019 European heatwave. NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 14 December 2021. doi:10.5285/dd6a312c701f47778390de50cd052071. http://dx.doi.org/10.5285/dd6a312c701f47778390de50cd052071
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: CO2, ECMWF, European heatwave

Details

Previous Info:
No news update for this record
Previously used record identifiers:
No related previous identifiers.
Access rules:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Data were generated using the ECMWF IFS CY45R1 model at Tco639 resolution. Data are either operational forecast data, or experiments that use an identical model version and setup to operations in which the CO2 concentration has been perturbed. These experiments would replicate operations but for the CO2 perturbations. Data were post-processed using cdo1.9.8 and NCO4.7.2. The data were then sent to the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for archiving.

Data Quality:
Data are as given by the data provider, no quality control has been performed by the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
File Format:
Data are netCDF formatted

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.
Title ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) CY45R1 deployed on ECMWF computing facilities using allocation for ECMWF special project spgbleac.
Abstract ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) CY45R1 deployed on ECMWF computing facilities using allocation for ECMWF special project spgbleac. This involved running a series of experiments set up and run on the ECMWF system alongside use of operational forecast run data and subsequent hindcast data products. Model runs were run globally, though output were taken on both global and and European area domains for archiving. EU domain has more comprehensive range of parameters archived. For details of the model runs see Leach et al. (2021) in the linked documentation on this record.
Input Description None
Output Description None
Software Reference None
  • units: K
  • long_name: 2 metre temperature
  • var_id: t2m
  • names: 2 metre temperature
  • units: m**2 s**-2
  • long_name: Geopotential
  • standard_name: geopotential
  • var_id: z500
  • names: Geopotential, geopotential
  • units: K
  • long_name: Maximum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours
  • var_id: mx2t6
  • names: Maximum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours
  • units: K
  • long_name: Maximum temperature at 2 metres since previous post-processing
  • var_id: mx2t
  • names: Maximum temperature at 2 metres since previous post-processing
  • units: Pa
  • var_id: msl
  • long_name: Mean sea level pressure
  • standard_name: air_pressure_at_mean_sea_level
  • names: Mean sea level pressure, air_pressure_at_mean_sea_level
  • units: K
  • standard_name: air_temperature
  • long_name: Temperature
  • var_id: t850
  • names: Temperature, air_temperature
  • units: J m**-2
  • standard_name: toa_net_upward_shortwave_flux
  • long_name: Top net solar radiation
  • var_id: tsr
  • names: Top net solar radiation, toa_net_upward_shortwave_flux
  • standard_name: toa_outgoing_longwave_flux
  • units: J m**-2
  • long_name: Top net thermal radiation
  • var_id: ttr
  • names: toa_outgoing_longwave_flux, Top net thermal radiation
  • standard_name: cloud_area_fraction
  • units: (0 - 1)
  • long_name: Total cloud cover
  • var_id: tcc
  • names: cloud_area_fraction, Total cloud cover
  • units: m
  • long_name: Total precipitation
  • var_id: tp
  • names: Total precipitation
  • long_name: ensemble_member
  • var_id: number
  • names: ensemble_member
  • units: degrees_north
  • var_id: latitude
  • long_name: latitude
  • names: latitude
  • units: degrees_east
  • var_id: longitude
  • long_name: longitude
  • names: longitude
  • long_name: time
  • var_id: time
  • names: time

Co-ordinate Variables

Coverage
Temporal Range
Start time:
2019-01-14T00:00:00
End time:
2019-03-01T00:00:00
Geographic Extent

 
90.0000°
 
-180.0000°
 
180.0000°
 
-90.0000°