Dataset
Technical Summary of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Input data for Box TS4, Figure 1 (v20220817)
Abstract
Input Data for Box TS4 from Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
Box TS4, Figure 1 shows global mean sea level change on different time scales and under different scenarios.
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How to cite this dataset
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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.
When citing the SSP-based sea-level projections, please also include the following citation:
Garner, G. G., T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Global Mean Sea-Level Rise Projections. Version 20210809. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914710.
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Figure subpanels
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The figure has three panels. Panel a shows global mean sea level (GMSL) change from 1900 to 2150, observed (1900–2018) and projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2000–2150). Panel b shows GMSL change on 100-, 2,000-, and 10,000-year time scales as a function of global surface temperature. Panel c shows timing of exceedance of different GMSL thresholds under different SSPs.
Input data is only available for panel a and c.
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List of data provided
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This dataset contains:
Global mean sea level change time-series from 1901-2150 for:
- Observed global mean sea level change (1901-2018).
- Projected global mean sea level change (2005-2150).
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Data provided in relation to figure
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Data provided in relation to Box TS4, Figure 1:
SSP-based global mean sea level projections are archived as
Garner, G. G., Hermans, T., Kopp, R. E., Slangen, A. B. A., Edwards, T. L., Levermann, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., Smith, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Krinner, G., Mix, A., … Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Version 20210809) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914710
Panel a:
Consensus observational GMSL curve: gmsl_altimeter+TG_ensemble_28012021.mat
This file is not provided but a link to the Chapter 9 GitHub repository which contains this file is provided.
SSP-based GMSL projections through 2100, medium confidence:
- pbox1e_total_ssp119_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1e_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1e_total_ssp245_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1e_total_ssp370_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1e_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc
SSP-based GMSL projections after 2100, medium confidence:
- pbox1f_total_ssp119_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1f_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1f_total_ssp245_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1f_total_ssp370_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox1f_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc
SSP-based GMSL projections through 2100, low confidence:
- pbox2e_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox2e_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc
SSP-based GMSL projections after 2100, low confidence:
- pbox2f_total_ssp126_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox2f_total_ssp245_globalsl_figuredata.nc
- pbox2f_total_ssp585_globalsl_figuredata.nc
Panel c:
Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, medium confidence, with parametric emulator for Antarctic ice sheet:
- wf_1f_ssp119_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_1f_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_1f_ssp245_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_1f_ssp370_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_1f_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc
Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, medium confidence, with LARMIP-2 emulator for Antarctic ice sheet:
- wf_2f_ssp119_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_2f_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_2f_ssp245_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_2f_ssp370_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_2f_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc
Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, low confidence, with DeConto et al. 2021-based Antarctic ice sheet projections incorporating Marine Ice Cliff Instability:
- wf_3f_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_3f_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc
Threshold exceedance timing under different SSPs, low confidence, with Bamber et al. 2019-based structured expert judgement ice sheet projections:
- wf_4_ssp126_milestone_figuredata.nc
- wf_4_ssp585_milestone_figuredata.nc
See sections 9.6.3.2 and 9.6.3.3 for detailed information on the SSP-based global mean sea level projections and their production.
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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data
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Panel a data were plotted using standard matplotlib software and a Linux shell script, - code is available via the link in the documentation. The code requires the input data provided here and the additional gmsl_altimeter+TG_ensemble_28012021.mat file from Figure 9.27. The link to this file from the Chapter 9 GitHub is provided.
Panel c data were plotted using standard open-source R software - code is available via the link in the documentation.
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Sources of additional information
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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Technical Summary)
- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.
- Link to the sea-level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, archived on Zenodo.
- Link to figure data in matlab format on github
Details
| Previous Info: |
No news update for this record
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| Previously used record identifiers: |
No related previous identifiers.
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| Access rules: |
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. |
| Data lineage: |
Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI). |
| Data Quality: |
Data as provided by the IPCC
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| File Format: |
NetCDF, txt
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Related Documents
Process overview
| Title | Caption for Box TS4, Figure 1 from the Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) |
| Abstract | Global mean sea level (GMSL) change on different time scales and under different scenarios. The intent of this figure is to (i) show the century-scale GMSL projections in the context of the 20th century observations, (ii) illustrate ‘deep uncertainty’ in projections by considering the timing of GMSL rise milestones, and (iii) show the long-term commitment associated with different warming levels, including the paleo evidence to support this. (a) GMSL change from 1900 to 2150, observed (1900–2018) and projected under the SSP scenarios (2000–2150), relative to a 1995–2014 baseline. Solid lines show median projections. Shaded regions showlikely ranges for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Dotted and dashed lines show respectively the 83rd and 95th percentilelow confidence projections for SSP5-8.5. Bars at right showlikely ranges for SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 in 2150. Lightly shaded thick/thin bars show 17th–83rd/5th–95th percentile low-confidence ranges in 2150 for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, based upon projection methods incorporating structured expert judgement and marine ice cliff instability. Low confidence range for SSP5-8.5 in 2150 extends to 4.8/5.4 m at the 83rd/95th percentile. (b) GMSL change on 100- (blue), 2000- (green) and 10,000-year (magenta) time scales as a function of global surface temperature, relative to 1850–1900. For 100-year projections, GMSL is projected for the year 2100, relative to a 1995–2014 baseline, and temperature anomalies are average values over 2081–2100. For longer-term commitments, warming is indexed by peak warming above 1850–1900 reached after cessation of emissions. Shaded regions show paleo-constraints on global surface temperature and GMSL for the Last Interglacial and mid-Pliocene Warm Period. Lightly shaded thick/thin blue bars show 17th–83rd/5th–95th percentile low confidence ranges for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 in 2100, plotted at 2°C and 5°C. (c) Timing of exceedance of GMSL thresholds of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 m, under different SSPs. Lightly shaded thick/thin bars show 17th–83rd/5th–95th percentile low-confidence ranges for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. {4.3.2, 9.6.1, 9.6.2, 9.6.3, Box 9.4} |
| Input Description | None |
| Output Description | None |
| Software Reference | None |
- units: -
- var_id: exceedance_years
- units: mm
- var_id: heights
- var_id: lat
- units: Degrees North
- var_id: locations
- units: Degrees East
- var_id: lon
- var_id: quantiles
- units: mm
- var_id: sea_level_change
- var_id: sites
- var_id: years
Co-ordinate Variables
Temporal Range
1901-01-01T00:00:00
2300-12-31T23:59:59
Geographic Extent
90.0000° |
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-180.0000° |
180.0000° |
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-90.0000° |