Dataset
Technical Summary of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Input data for Figure TS.12 (v20230301)
Abstract
Input data for Figure TS.12 from the Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
Figure TS.12 shows land-related changes relative to the 1850-1900 as a function of global warming levels.
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How to cite this dataset
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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.
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Figure subpanels
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The figure has six panels, with input data provided for all panels in subdirectories named Extremes, ModelSnow/sncbin and WaterCyclePanels.
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List of data provided
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This dataset contains:
- Relative frequency and intensity changes of 1-in-10- and 1-in-50-year extreme daily heat (TXx) in CMIP6 models (ScenarioMIP) with respect to 1850-1900. Medians and 5, 17, 83, 95 percentiles.
- Relative frequency and intensity changes of 1-in-10- and 1-in-50-year extreme daily precipitation rates (Rx1day) in CMIP6 models (ScenarioMIP) with respect to 1850-1900. Medians and 5, 17, 83, 95 percentiles.
- Relative frequency and intensity changes of 1-in-10-year drought events in CMIP6 models (ScenarioMIP) with respect to 1850-1900. Medians and 5, 17, 83, 95 percentiles.
- Monthly NH snow cover extent changes (in %), dependent on the GWL (with respect to 1850-1900), for CMIP6 models (historical + ScenarioMIP), with respect to snow cover extent at 0°C GWL (1850-1900)
- Average precipitable water (annual mean), precipitation rate (annual mean + interannual variability), and runoff (annual mean + interannual variability) over tropical land (|latitude|<30°), in the CMIP6 models that reach +5°C GWL in SSP5-8.5.
- Average precipitable water (annual mean), precipitation rate (annual mean + interannual variability), and runoff (annual mean + interannual variability) over tropical land (|latitude|>30°), in the CMIP6 models that reach +5°C GWL in SSP5-8.5.
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Data provided in relation to figure
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Panel a:
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_freq_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_intens_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange thermometer symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_freq_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/TXx_intens_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown thermometer symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
Panel b:
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _freq_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _intens_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange rain cloud symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _freq_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/Rx1day _intens_change_50_year_event.csv; relates to the brown rain cloud symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
Panel c:
- Data file: Extremes/drought _freq_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange clock symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
- Data file: Extremes/drought _intens_change_10_year_event.csv; relates to the orange drop symbols and small orange 3-pronged symbols above and below.
Panel d:
Data files: ModelSnow/sncbin/sncbin_{model}_historical_ssp{xyy}.nc. For each model and scenario, these files contain a table that gives the snow cover extent changes for each month of the year and for 0.2°C-wide temperature bins. The colours represent the 5 scenarios (see legend, standard IPCC scenario colour code). Each dot represents one GWL (0.2°C bins) for one model and one scenario. The linear multi-model regression lines are coloured dependent on the scenario they represent.
The filenames have been changed from the GitHub for archival with '_ssp' in the filename replacing the original '+ssp'.For example, file 'sncbin_BCC-CSM2-MR_historical_ssp126.nc' is named 'sncbin_BCC-CSM2-MR_historical+ssp126.nc' on GitHub. This needs to be changed back when plotting with the code or amended in the code.
Panel e:
- Data files: WaterCyclePanels/Hydro_vars_change_20210201_derived_tropic.json. Multi-model mean precipitable water, precipitation, and runoff (annual mean and interannual variability (standard deviation)).
Left part of the panel:
* Black full line: Precipitable water, annual mean, multi-model mean
* Brown full line: Runoff, annual mean, multi-model mean
* Brown dashed line: Runoff, interannual variability, multi-model mean
* Blue full line: Precipitation, annual mean, multi-model mean
* Blue dashed line: Precipitation, interannual variability, multi-model mean
Right part of the panel: 17-83% inter-model ranges for the +5°C GWL.
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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data
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This figure is plotted using python scripts which are archived on Zenodo at the link provided in the 'Related Documents' section of this catalogue record. A link to the GitHub repository for this figure is also provided. Please note that the filenames of the net-cdf files in ModelSnow/ have been changed from '+ssp' to '_ssp' which also needs to be amended in the code when running with these input files.
Panel a:
The Python script Extremes/TS2-Land-Extremes-202110.py reads the csv data sheets and plots the panel.
Panel b:
The Python script Extremes/TS2-Land-Extremes-202110.py reads the csv data sheets and plots the panel.
Panel c:
The Python script Extremes/TS2-Land-Extremes-202110.py reads the csv data sheets and plots the panel.
Panel d:
The Python script ModelSnow/AR6TS2-Snow.py reads the net-cdf data and plots the panel.
Panel e:
The Python script WaterCyclePanels/TS12-WaterCycle.py reads the json data sheets and plots the panel.
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Sources of additional information
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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Technical Summary)
- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo
- Link to the TS_Fig12 GitHub repository
Details
| Previous Info: |
No news update for this record
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| Previously used record identifiers: |
No related previous identifiers.
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| Access rules: |
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence(s): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. |
| Data lineage: |
Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI). |
| Data Quality: |
Data as provided by the IPCC
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| File Format: |
Data are netCDF, csv and json formatted
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Process overview
| Title | Caption for Figure TS.12 from the Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) |
| Abstract | Land-related changes relative to the 1850-1900 as a function of global warming levels. The intent of this figure is to show that extremes and mean land variables change consistently with warming levels and to show the changes with global warming levels of water cycle indicators (i.e., precipitation and runoff) over tropical and extratropical land in terms of mean and interannual variability (interannual variability increases at a faster rate than the mean). (a) Changes in the frequency (left scale) and intensity (in °C, right scale) of daily hot extremes occurring every 10 and 50 years. (b) as (a), but for daily heavy precipitation extremes, with intensity change in %. (c) Changes in 10-year droughts aggregated over drought-prone regions (WNA, CNA, NCA, SCA, NSA, NES, SAM, SWS, SSA, WCE, MED, WSAF, ESAF, MDG, SAU, and EAU; for definitions of these regions, see Figure Atlas.2), with drought intensity (right scale) represented by the change of annual mean soil moisture, normalized with respect to interannual variability. Limits of the 5%−95% confidence interval are shown in panels (a–c). (d) Changes in Northern Hemisphere spring (March–April–May) snow cover extent relative to 1850–1900; (e,f) Relative change (%) in annual mean of total precipitable water (grey line), precipitation (red solid lines), runoff (blue solid lines) and in standard deviation (i.e., variability) of precipitation (red dashed lines) and runoff (blue dashed lines) averaged over (e) tropical and (f) extratropical land as function of global warming levels. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models that reached a 5°C warming level above the 1850–1900 average in the 21st century in SSP5-8.5 have been used. Precipitation and runoff variability are estimated by respective standard deviation after removing linear trends. Error bars show the 17–83% confidence interval for the warmest +5°C global warming level. {Figures 8.16, 9.24, 11.6, 11.7, 11.12, 11.15, 11.18 and Atlas.2} |
| Input Description | None |
| Output Description | None |
| Software Reference | None |
- long_name: month
- var_id: month
- units: months
- var_id: sncbin
- units: km^2
- units: K
- var_id: Tbin
- long_name: temperature bin
Co-ordinate Variables
Temporal Range
1850-01-01T12:00:00
2100-12-31T12:00:00
Geographic Extent
90.0000° |
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-180.0000° |
180.0000° |
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-90.0000° |