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Chapter 4 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 4.42 (v20230213)

Update Frequency: Not Planned
Latest Data Update: 2023-02-15
Status: Ongoing
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Citable
Publication Date: 2023-06-07
DOI Publication Date: 2023-07-03
Download Stats: last 12 months
Dataset Size: 4 Files | 989KB


Data for Figure 4.42 from Chapter 4 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure 4.42 illustrates high-warming storylines for changes in annual mean precipitation.

How to cite this dataset
When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:
Lee, J.-Y., J. Marotzke, G. Bala, L. Cao, S. Corti, J.P. Dunne, F. Engelbrecht, E. Fischer, J.C. Fyfe, C. Jones, A. Maycock, J. Mutemi, O. Ndiaye, S. Panickal, and T. Zhou, 2021: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 553–672, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.006.

Figure subpanels
The figure has seven panels, with data provided for panels a-c and e-f in two separate files.

List of data provided
This dataset contains precipitation change patterns for the multi model means and different low-likelihood high warming storylines, and a low and high change storyline reflection the uncertainty due to model response and unforced internal variability at the grid point level.

Data provided in relation to figure
Data file includes the precipitation change pattern for the three panels as different variables called panelA, panelB, and panelC, respectively.
Data file includes the precipitation change pattern for the two panels as different variables called panelE and panelF, respectively.

Sources of additional information
The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:
- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website
- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 4)
- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 4, which contains details on the input data used in Table 4.SM.1

Citable as:  Fischer, E. (2023): Chapter 4 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 4.42 (v20230213). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 03 July 2023. doi:10.5285/e5e7afe5355a439e8d63be47ee7467c8.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: IPCC-DDC, IPCC, AR6, WG1, WGI, Chapter 4, Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Physical Science Basis, precipitation


Previous Info:
No news update for this record
Previously used record identifiers:
No related previous identifiers.
Access rules:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Data produced by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors and supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) by the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for IPCC Working Group I (WGI).
Data curated on behalf of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC-DDC).

Data Quality:
Data as provided by the IPCC
File Format:
Data are netCDF formatted

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.

Caption for Figure 4.42 from Chapter 4 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)


High-warming storylines for changes in annual mean precipitation. (a) Estimates for annual mean precipitation changes in 2081–2100, relative to 1995–2014, consistent with the best global surface air temperature (GSAT) estimate derived by linearly scaling the CMIP6 multi-model mean changes to a GSAT change of 3.5°C. (b, c) Estimates for annual mean precipitation changes in 2081–2100 relative 1995–2014 in a storyline representing a physically plausible high-global-warming level. (b) Multi-model-mean precipitation scaled to high-global-warming level (corresponding to 4.8°C, the upper bound of the very likely range; see Section 4.3.4). (c) Average of five models with GSAT warming nearest to the high level of warming (ACCESS-CM2, CESM2, CESM2-WACCM, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR) (d) Annual mean precipitation changes in four of the five individual model simulations averaged in (c). (e, f) Local upper estimate (95% quantile across models) and lower estimate (5% quantile across models) at each grid point. Information at individual grid points comes from different model simulations and illustrates local uncertainty range but should not be interpreted as a pattern. (g) Area fraction of changes in annual mean precipitation 2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014 for (i) all CMIP6 model simulations (thin black lines), (ii) models shown in (c) (red lines), and (iii) models showing very high warming above the models shown in (c) (dark red lines). The grey range illustrates the 5–95% range across CMIP6 models and the solid black line the area fraction of the multi-model mean pattern shown in (a). Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 4.SM.1).

Input Description


Output Description


Software Reference


  • units: %
  • var_id: panelF
  • long_name: Precipitation change
  • units: degrees_north
  • var_id: lat
  • units: degrees_east
  • var_id: lon

Co-ordinate Variables

  • units: degrees_north
  • standard_name: latitude
  • var_id: lat
  • units: degrees_east
  • standard_name: longitude
  • var_id: lon
Temporal Range
Start time:
End time:
Geographic Extent

Related parties
Authors (1)