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Physical Marine Climate Projections for the North West European Shelf Seas: NWSPPE

Latest Data Update: 2023-05-18
Status: Completed
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Citable
Publication Date: 2023-06-01
DOI Publication Date: 2023-07-20
Download Stats: last 12 months
Dataset Size: 6.38K Files | 83GB


A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of the Met Office Global Coupled model version 3.05 (HadGEM3-GC3.05) has been downscaled with the shelf seas climate version of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) Coastal Ocean model (CO9). Each of the 12 ensemble members have been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1990-2098) under RCP8.5 scenario, and we refer to the resultant downscaled PPE as the North West Shelf Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (NWSPPE). The HadGEM3-GC3.05 PPE was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. CO9 was run at a 7 km resolution, with 51 vertical levels using s-coordinates. This data collection includes 2D fields of monthly mean output for the full period, for each ensemble member, as well as pre-processed climatologies. Regional mean time series are also included for each ensemble member.

NEMO has three model grids, the T, U and V grids, and we output variables in three files, respecting their native model grid. In practice, all our variables are on the T grid, apart from the Eastward and Northward components of the depth mean velocities (DMU, DMV), which are in the U and V grid files respectively. The T grid files have Sea Surface, Near Bed, and the Difference between the surface and bed Temperature and Salinity (SST, NBT, DFT, SSS, NBS, DFS), Potential Energy Anomaly (PEA), Mixed Layer Depth (MLD), the barotropic current magnitude interpolated onto the T grid (DMUV).

Citable as:  Tinker, J. (2023): Physical Marine Climate Projections for the North West European Shelf Seas: NWSPPE. NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 20 July 2023. doi:10.5285/edf66239c70c426e9e9f19da1ac8ba87.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: UKCP, Marine Climate, Uncertainty, Climate Downscaling, NW European Shelf Seas, Shelf Seas, Temperature, SST, Salinity, Stratification, North Sea, Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel


Previous Info:
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Use of these data is covered by the following licence: When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

The UKCP18 HadGEM3 GC3.05 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble was dynamically downscaled with shelf seas climate version of NEMO 4.0.4 (CO9) to give a set of climate projections.

Model output from HadGEM3 GC3.05 was processed into model input for CO9. CO9 was run for each of the 12 ensemble members as transient simulations. The results were assessed against a range of observations, which will be described in Tinker et al. (2023, in prep). The model output was then post-processed using the python package available at After data and code evaluation, the dataset was supplied for archiving at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA).

Data Quality:
The data have been thoroughly evaluated against observational data, including comparisons of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to the OSTIA analysis (Roberts-Jones et al. (2012); the surface and bed temperatures (SST, NBT) and sea surface salinity (SSS) to the quality controlled EN4 profile dataset (Good et al. (2013); and the sea surface height to satellite altimetry products (Rio et al. (2014); Legeais et al. (2018), and tide gauge records (PSMSL, Holgate et al. (2013)
File Format:
Data are provided in NetCDF format.

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.

NEMO Shelf Coastal Ocean Model 9 (CO9) based on NEMO4.0.4


The shelf seas model used in these climate projections is available on github:

Input Description


Output Description


Software Reference


  • units: m/s
  • var_id: DMUV
  • long_name: Barotropic current speed on T grid
  • units: 1e-3
  • var_id: DFS
  • long_name: Difference between Sea Surface and Near Bed Salinity
  • units: degC
  • var_id: DFT
  • long_name: Difference between Sea Surface and Near Bed Temperature
  • units: m/s
  • var_id: DMU
  • long_name: Eastward Ocean Barotropic current
  • units: m
  • standard_name: ocean_mixed_layer_thickness
  • var_id: MLD
  • long_name: Mixed Layer Depth using the Kara approach
  • units: 1e-3
  • var_id: NBS
  • long_name: Near Bed Salinity
  • units: degC
  • var_id: NBT
  • long_name: Near Bed Temperature
  • units: m/s
  • var_id: DMV
  • long_name: Northward Ocean Barotropic current
  • var_id: PEA
  • units: J/m3
  • long_name: Potential Energy Anomaly
  • units: m
  • var_id: SSH
  • standard_name: sea_surface_height_above_geoid
  • long_name: Sea Surface Height above Geoid
  • units: 1e-3
  • long_name: Sea Surface Salinity
  • var_id: SSS
  • units: degC
  • standard_name: sea_surface_temperature
  • var_id: SST
  • long_name: Sea Surface Temperature
  • var_id: time
  • units: seconds
  • long_name: Time axis
  • var_id: time_bounds

Co-ordinate Variables

  • units: degrees_north
  • standard_name: latitude
  • var_id: lat
  • long_name: Latitude
  • units: degrees_east
  • standard_name: longitude
  • var_id: lon
  • long_name: Longitude
Temporal Range
Start time:
End time:
Geographic Extent