Project
Drivers of the successful 2022 European summer seasonal ECMWF forecast
Status: completed
Publication State: published
Abstract
The 2022 European summer season was marked by extremely high temperatures over southern and western areas of Europe resulting in severe wildfires, heat-related deaths and general disruption to western European societies. The associated circulation patterns were relatively well captured by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecast system 5, in spite of generally low skill in the summer. This project performed a case study of this seasonal forecast to examine the drivers and windows of forecast opportunity.
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