This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are agreeing to our use of cookies. 



UKCP18 Time-series Analyses of Sea Surface Elevation around the UK for 2007-2100

Update Frequency: As Needed
Status: Ongoing
Online Status: ONLINE
Publication State: Published
Publication Date: 2018-11-26
Download Stats: last 12 months


The data are simulated 21st century trends in the one-year return level (i.e. the location parameter) of skew surge due to simulated atmospheric storminess change only. No mean sea level change is included. The data were produced to investigate the magnitude of this component of extreme sea level change and to give an estimate of the minimum uncertainty in this component. To produce the data, atmospheric storminess data from five CMIP5 models was downscaled by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute regional climate model RCA4 and used to drive the National Oceanography Centre/Met Office storm surge model CS3. The 5 largest simulated skew surges in each year were identified and a 4-parameter joint probability distribution (including a linear trend in location parameter over time) was fitted. The data given here are the trends in the location parameter from 2007 to 2099. By construction the scale parameter does not change and so the same trend applies to all return periods. The data covers the UK coast.

Citable as:  Met Office Hadley Centre (2018): UKCP18 Time-series Analyses of Sea Surface Elevation around the UK for 2007-2100. Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, date of citation.
Abbreviation: Not defined
Keywords: Not defined


Previous Info:
No news update for this record
Previously used record identifiers:
No related previous identifiers.
Access rules:
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data lineage:

Data provided by the UK Met Office

File Format:
Data are NetCDF formatted

Process overview

This dataset was generated by the computation detailed below.
Title UKCP18 Time-series Analyses of Sea Surface Elevation Around the UK
Abstract The POLCS3 storm surge model was driven by climate model simulations of the 21st century under RCP8.5. Five different climate models were used. Each has first been downscaled by the SMHI regional atmospheric model RCA4. A statistical methid was used to identify trends in the most extreme storm surges. The data show these trends for various sites around the UK coastline.
Input Description None
Output Description None
Software Reference None
  • units: m/yr
  • long_name: 21st century trend in extreme still water level due to storminess change alone
  • var_id: skewSurgeTrend
  • names: 21st century trend in extreme still water level due to storminess change alone
  • units: no_unit
  • long_name: model
  • var_id: model
  • names: model

Co-ordinate Variables

  • units: degrees_north
  • standard_name: latitude
  • var_id: latitude
  • names: latitude
  • units: degrees_east
  • standard_name: longitude
  • var_id: longitude
  • names: longitude
Temporal Range
Start time:
End time:
Geographic Extent