The data are simulated 21st century trends in the one-year return level (i.e. the location parameter) of skew surge due to simulated atmospheric storminess change only. No mean sea level change is included. The data were produced to investigate the magnitude of this component of extreme sea level change and to give an estimate of the minimum uncertainty in this component. To produce the data, atmospheric storminess data from five CMIP5 models was downscaled by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute regional climate model RCA4 and used to drive the National Oceanography Centre/Met Office storm surge model CS3. The 5 largest simulated skew surges in each year were identified and a 4-parameter joint probability distribution (including a linear trend in location parameter over time) was fitted. The data given here are the trends in the location parameter from 2007 to 2099. By construction the scale parameter does not change and so the same trend applies to all return periods. The data covers the UK coast.