The data are simulated 21st century trends in the one-year return level (i.e. the location parameter) of skew surge due to simulated atmospheric storminess change only. No mean sea level change is included. The data were produced to investigate the magnitude of this component of extreme sea level change and to give an estimate of the minimum uncertainty in this component. To produce the data, atmospheric storminess data from five CMIP5 models was downscaled by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute regional climate model RCA4 and used to drive the National Oceanography Centre/Met Office storm surge model CS3. The 5 largest simulated skew surges in each year were identified and a 4-parameter joint probability distribution (including a linear trend in location parameter over time) was fitted. The data given here are the trends in the location parameter from 2007 to 2099. By construction the scale parameter does not change and so the same trend applies to all return periods. The data covers the UK coast.
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Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data provided by the UK Met Office
Data are NetCDF formatted
|Title||UKCP18 Time-series Analyses of Sea Surface Elevation Around the UK|
|Abstract||The POLCS3 storm surge model was driven by climate model simulations of the 21st century under RCP8.5. Five different climate models were used. Each has first been downscaled by the SMHI regional atmospheric model RCA4. A statistical methid was used to identify trends in the most extreme storm surges. The data show these trends for various sites around the UK coastline.|
- units: m/yr
- long_name: 21st century trend in extreme still water level due to storminess change alone
- var_id: skewSurgeTrend
- names: 21st century trend in extreme still water level due to storminess change alone
- units: no_unit
- long_name: model
- var_id: model
- names: model
- units: degrees_north
- standard_name: latitude
- var_id: latitude
- names: latitude
- units: degrees_east
- standard_name: longitude
- var_id: longitude
- names: longitude