Regional projections for changes in soil moisture for different scenarios, time horizons and global warming levels. The bar plots show projections of soil moisture as percentage changes relative to the recent past (1994–2015) for the mid-term (2041–2060) and long term (2081–2100), and for three global warming levels (defined relative to the pre-industrial period 1850–1900): 1.5°C (purple), 2°C (yellow) and 4°C (brown), using CMIP6 (darkest colours), CMIP5 (medium colours) and CORDEX (lightest colours) ensembles. RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 is shown in red and RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6 in blue. The median (dots) and the 10th–90th percentile range of model ensemble values across each model ensemble and each time period are shown for the regional mean over land areas for the AR6 WGI Reference Regions (defined in Chapter 1). The CORDEX ensemble is missing in regions that are not fully covered by the CORDEX domain (EEU, ESB, RAR, RFE and WSB) or because less than five simulations were available (NWN, NEN, WNA, CAN, ENA and NCA). See Technical Annex VI for details of indices. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 12.SM.1).