Dataset
UKCP18 Probabilistic Projections by UK Countries for 1961-2100
Abstract
This data represents the probabilistic climate projections component of the past (observed) and future climate scenario projections data, produced as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project. Data has been produced by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and provides information on changes in 21st century climate for the UK, helping to inform adaptation to a changing climate.
The data represents anomalies with respect to the baseline period 1981-2000, and cover the period 1 Dec 1960 to 30 Nov 2099. Data for 8 'country' regions in the UK is provided: Channel Islands, England, England and Wales, Isle of Man, Northern Ireland, Scotland, United Kingdom, Wales.
The Probabilistic Projections were updated on 4th August 2022, to make improvements to the methodology to improve: consistency between maximum, minimum and mean temperature; consistency in the downscaling; statistical treatment of precipitation particularly at the wet and dry extremes; representation of annual and decadal variability; and adjustment of the data in the 1981-2000 baseline period to ensure the anomalies average to zero. The combination of the improvements means that all variables are modified to some degree. For more information, please refer to the UKCP news article and the documents it links to.
Details
| Previous Info: |
2022-08-05 This dataset was updated on 4th August 2022. See the record abstract for details. 2022-08-05 This dataset was updated on 4th August 2022. See the record abstract for details. |
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| Previously used record identifiers: |
No related previous identifiers.
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| Access rules: |
Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for an account to gain access.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. |
| Data lineage: |
Data provided by the UK Met Office |
| File Format: |
Data are NetCDF formatted
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Process overview
| Title | UKCP18 Probabilistic Climate Projections for UK Countries |
| Abstract | The probabilistic projections combine information from several collections of earth system climate models, including the HadCM3 family of Met Office Hadley Centre climate models, and earth system climate models from other climate centres contributing to CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). The leading sources of modelling uncertainty in the atmosphere, land surface, ocean, sulphur cycle, and terrestrial carbon cycle components of the climate system are sampled, and simulated responses are weighted by the likelihood for predicting a large multivariate set of climate observables. Observationally constrained uncertainty estimates for ranges of future climate are provided in the form of probability distribution functions or large sets of probabilistic realizations, for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5 and SRES-A1B emission-driven scenarios. |
| Input Description | None |
| Output Description | None |
| Software Reference | None |
- units: %
- standard_name: cloud_area_fraction
- long_name: Cloud area fraction
- var_id: cltAnom
- var_id: cltAnom
- units: %-1
- long_name: Cloud area fraction probability density
- units: 1
- var_id: geo_region
- long_name: Country
- units: W m-2
- standard_name: surface_downwelling_shortwave_flux_in_air
- long_name: Downward surface shortwave flux
- var_id: rsdsAnom
- var_id: rsdsAnom
- units: W-1 m2
- long_name: Downward surface shortwave flux probability density
- standard_name: air_temperature
- units: degC
- long_name: Maximum air temperature
- var_id: tasmaxAnom
- var_id: tasmaxAnom
- units: degC-1
- long_name: Maximum air temperature probability density
- standard_name: air_temperature
- units: degC
- long_name: Mean air temperature
- var_id: tasAnom
- var_id: tasAnom
- units: degC-1
- long_name: Mean air temperature probability density
- standard_name: air_temperature
- units: degC
- long_name: Minimum air temperature
- var_id: tasminAnom
- var_id: tasminAnom
- units: degC-1
- long_name: Minimum air temperature probability density
- units: W m-2
- standard_name: surface_net_downward_longwave_flux
- long_name: Net Surface long wave flux
- var_id: rlsAnom
- var_id: rlsAnom
- units: W-1 m2
- long_name: Net Surface long wave flux probability density
- units: W m-2
- standard_name: surface_net_downward_shortwave_flux
- long_name: Net Surface short wave flux
- var_id: rssAnom
- var_id: rssAnom
- units: W-1 m2
- long_name: Net Surface short wave flux probability density
- units: %
- standard_name: lwe_precipitation_rate
- long_name: Precipitation rate
- var_id: prAnom
- var_id: prAnom
- units: %-1
- long_name: Precipitation rate probability density
- units: hPa
- standard_name: air_pressure_at_sea_level
- long_name: Pressure at mean sea level
- var_id: pslAnom
- var_id: pslAnom
- units: hPa-1
- long_name: Pressure at mean sea level probability density
- units: %
- standard_name: specific_humidity
- long_name: Specific humidity
- var_id: hussAnom
- var_id: hussAnom
- units: %-1
- long_name: Specific humidity probability density
- units: 1
- long_name: month_number
- var_id: month_number
- units: %
- var_id: percentile
- long_name: percentile
- units: 1
- standard_name: region
- var_id: region
- units: 1
- var_id: sample
- long_name: sample
- units: 1
- long_name: season
- var_id: season
- units: 1
- long_name: season_year
- var_id: season_year
- var_id: time_bnds
- units: 1
- long_name: year
- var_id: year
Co-ordinate Variables
- standard_name: time
- var_id: time
Temporal Range
1961-01-01T00:00:00
2100-12-30T23:59:59
Geographic Extent
60.8600° |
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-8.1800° |
1.7600° |
|
49.1600° |