The High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) project has calculated fire danger for the period 2061 to 2070 under two different climate change scenarios to assess the change in fire danger at 1.5 degrees compared to 2 degrees Celsius.

The two fire indices (the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI); and the Angström Index) were based on output from the Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES (Collins et al, 2011; Jones et al, 2011) at a spatial resolution of 1.875° x 1.25°, driven by concentrations following two experiments. The first was the strong mitigation scenario RCP2.6 (Representation Concentration Pathway) for the 2 degree change used within the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The second was a new experiment set up using a new run of RCP2.6+SRM initialised at 2020 and run to the end of the 21st century with SO₂ injected continuously and uniformly into the stratosphere at a height of 16-25 km in 4 member ensemble simulations. In the model, the SO₂ oxidises to form a sulphate aerosol which reflects incoming solar radiation and creates a cooling effect on the climate, simulating the effect of SRM in order to keep climate warming to 1.5°C.