The UKCP09 storm surge projections use the National Oceanography Centre storm surge model (POLCS3). This model is currently used to provide coastal forecasts of surge in the UK, as part of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting service, to support the issue of coastal flood warnings by the Environment Agency and other similar bodies.

Use of POLCS3 has shown that the model is relatively reliable when driven by realistic weather information, and in the Thames Estuary 2100 Case studies it was shown to be capable of replicating observed extreme storm surges in the southern North Sea and Thames Estuary.

See the technical note on storm projections for full details.