Computation
Caption for Figure 9.6 from Chapter 9 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
Abstract
Ocean heat content (OHC) and its changes with time. (a) Time series of global OHC anomaly relative to a 2005–2014 climatology in the upper 2000 m of the ocean. Shown are observations (Ishii et al., 2017; Baggenstos et al., 2019; Shackleton et al., 2020), model-observation hybrids (Cheng et al., 2019; Zanna et al., 2019), and multi-model means from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical (29 models) and Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (label subscripts indicate number of models per SSP). (b–g) Maps of OHC across different time periods, in different layers, and from different datasets/experiments. Maps show the CMIP6 ensemble bias and observed (Ishii et al., 2017) trends of OHC for (b, c) 0–700 m for the period 1971–2014, and (e, f) 0–2000 m for the period 2005–2017. CMIP6 ensemble mean maps show projected rate of change 2015–2100 for (d) SSP5-8.5 and (g) SSP1-2.6 scenarios. Also shown are the projected change in 0–700 m OHC for (d) SSP1-2.6 and (g) SSP5-8.5 in the CMIP6 ensembles, for the period 2091–2100 versus 2005–2014. No overlay indicates regions with high model agreement, where ≥80% of models agree on the sign of change. Diagonal lines indicate regions with low model agreement, where <80% of models agree on the sign of change (see Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.1 for more information). Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 9.SM.9).
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