The UKCP18 exploratory extended time-mean sea level projections are provided as spatially a continuous dataset around the UK coastline for the period 2007-2300. These exploratory projections have been devised to be used seamlessly with the UKCP18 21st Century projections and provide very similar values for the period up to 2100. Users should be aware that post-2100 projections have a far greater degree of uncertainty than the 21st Century projections and should therefore be treated as illustrative of the potential future changes. Note that we cannot rule out substantially larger sea level rise in the coming centuries than is represented in the projections presented here. The data consist of annual time series of the projected change in the time-mean coastal water level relative to the average value for the period 1981-2000. Projections are available for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (Meinshausen et al, 2011). As with the 21st Century projections, nine percentiles are provided to characterise the projection uncertainty, based on underlying modelling uncertainty. However, users should view these uncertainties with a much lower degree of confidence for the period post-2100.
This dataset was updated in March 2023 to correct a minor processing error in the earlier version of the UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections relating to the adjustment applied to convert from the IPCC AR5 baseline of 1986-2005 to the baseline period of 1981-2000. The update results in about a 1 cm increase compared to the original data release for all UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections at all timescales. Further details can be found in the accompanying technical note.
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Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Data provided by the UK Met Office
Data are NetCDF formatted
UKCP18 exploratory extended regional time-mean sea level projections
The UKCP18 exploratory regional time-mean sea level projections are based on a two-layer energy balance model (e.g. Gregory et al, 2015) fit to individual CMIP5 climate models. This model framework is used to provide extended projections of global thermal expansion and global average surface temperature (GST) change to 2300. Global contributions from ice sheet surface mass balance and glaciers are related to GST following methods described in IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 13 (Church et al, 2013). Global sea level contributions for dynamic ice discharge for Greenland and Antarctica are based on extrapolation of IPCC AR5 projections to 2100 and the modelling work of Levermann et al (2014), respectively. Estimates of land water storage changes follow those reported in IPCC AR5 for the 21st Century extrapolated to 2300. These global components are regionalised for the UK through use of: (i) sea level fingerprints for mass components provided by Aimee Slangen and Giorgio Spada; (ii) regression relationships around the UK and across CMIP5 models for the oceanographic component; (iii) an ensemble of estimates of the relative sea level change from glacial isostatic adjustment from the NERC BRITICE_CHRONO project. Please refer to UKCP18 documentation for detailed methods.
- units: m
- long_name: Local time-mean relative sea level anomaly
- var_id: seaLevelAnom
- names: Local time-mean relative sea level anomaly
- long_name: percentile
- var_id: percentile
- names: percentile
- long_name: Time
- standard_name: time
- var_id: time
- names: time, Time
- standard_name: latitude
- var_id: latitude
- units: degrees_north
- names: latitude
- units: degrees_east
- standard_name: longitude
- var_id: longitude
- names: longitude