The UKCP09 marine & coastal storm surge data provides projections of surge height for the linear trend, the 5th and 95th percentiles throughout the 21st Century for 2, 10, 20 and 50 year return period events (including statistical significance) over a 12km coastal grid. Data are available for a medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B), to reflect some aspects of the uncertainty in modelling global and regional climate change eleven different variants of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 were used to drive eleven corresponding variants of the HadRM3 regional model, which in turn drove the National Oceanography Centre storm surge model (POLCS3).
Note: The projections do not cover all plausible future outcomes and unlike some other components of UKCP09, the storm surge height projections are not probabilistic, although a range is provided based on the assumption that the 11 simulations are equally likely.
More information about the storm surge methodology (including assumptions and caveats) are given in Chapter 4 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report and the technical note on storm projections.
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Restricted data: please submit an application using the REQUEST ACCESS link for access.
Use of these data is covered by the following licence: https://services.ceda.ac.uk/cedasite/resreg/application?attributeid=ukcp09-climate-projections. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Original data were produced by the Met Office as part of the UKCP09 service before preparation for archival with the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA).
The UKCP09 data were quality controlled by the UKCP09 partners prior to being made available through the UKCP09 data portal in 2009. See the UKCP09 climate projections review and response along with further details are in given in the relevant projections reports (and external websites) which are available under "Docs".
The data are NetCDF formatted and adhere to v1.0 of the CF data conventions.
|Title||UKCP09 data computation for storm surge|
|Abstract||The UKCP09 storm surge projections use the National Oceanography Centre storm surge model (POLCS3). This model is currently used to provide coastal forecasts of surge in the UK, as part of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting service, to support the issue of coastal flood warnings by the Environment Agency and other similar bodies. Use of POLCS3 has shown that the model is relatively reliable when driven by realistic weather information, and in the Thames Estuary 2100 Case studies it was shown to be capable of replicating observed extreme storm surges in the southern North Sea and Thames Estuary. See the technical note on storm projections for full details.|
- long_name: Long-term linear trend in skew surge (1951-2099)
- var_id: skew_surge_trend
- units: mm/yr
- names: Long-term linear trend in skew surge (1951-2099), skew_surge_trend
- long_name: One-sided 10% significance test on long-term linear trend in skew surge (1951-2099)
- var_id: skew_surge_signif_test
- units: mm/yr
- names: One-sided 10% significance test on long-term linear trend in skew surge (1951-2099), skew_surge_signif_test
- long_name: Return Level
- var_id: return_level_50
- units: years
- names: Return Level
- units: cm
- var_id: top_hpp_exceedence
- long_name: Top of H++ exceedance of present-day astronomical high tides by projected future extreme sea levels (50 year return period)
- names: Top of H++ exceedance of present-day astronomical high tides by projected future extreme sea levels (50 year return period), top_hpp_exceedence
- long_name: Uncertainty level
- var_id: percentile
- units: %
- names: Uncertainty level
- standard_name: latitude
- var_id: lat
- units: degrees_north
- names: latitude
- var_id: lon
- units: degrees_east
- standard_name: longitude
- names: longitude